约翰.鲍尔森等大买黄金

highlander

成功预测房地产/金融泡沫并大获其利的约翰.鲍尔森等人的基金大量买入黄金。 约翰.鲍尔森做空房地产，其基金2007年盈利150亿美元。 WSJ MARCH 9, 2009 Bearish Big Investors Catch Gold Bug By GREGORY ZUCKERMAN Largeinvestors, including some who anticipated troubles for the housing andfinancial sectors, have been buying gold, concerned that moves bygovernments to shovel money at problem areas could cripple leadingcurrencies. Firms such as Eton Park Capital Management LP, Greenlight Capital Inc., Hayman Advisors LP and Paulson & Co. have been ramping up gold exposure in recent months, according to investors in the funds. Blue Ridge Capital Holdings LLC and Highfields Capital Management LPalso have been recent buyers, according to public filings about theiryear-end holdings. Those two firms couldn't be reached for commentSunday. Some of these funds have become among the largest holders of gold exchange-traded funds, such as the SPDR Gold Shares ETF, while also buying gold futures contracts, swaps and even physical bars of the yellow metal. Foryears, gold fans often were fast-moving traders and so-called goldbugs, a crowd of bears ever-convinced that the underpinnings of globaleconomies and markets were set to crumble and inflation about to soar.Gold has disappointed some investors because it hasn't been a home-runinvestment despite recent financial ills. The recent purchasesof gold by the hedge-fund investors, some of whom have top records,suggests they are coming to share deep worries about the health ofglobal economies and how ongoing problems are being addressed. Kyle Bass, who runs Hayman, a firm that earned millions of dollars betting against risky subprime home mortgages,is now buying gold. "Confidence in governmental and cenral bankleadership ... is plummetting worldwide," Mr. Bass wrote his investorsrecently. "As a result, we believe people will look to "old fashioned"stores of value. Indeed, investors have already begun moving into precious metals. We expect this will continue." Since1971, the dollar has been backed not by gold but by faith in the U.S.government. Though they worry about the dollar, some of the investorsbuying gold are even more concerned about European currencies. John Paulson's eponymous firm, which reaped $15 billion in 2007 betting against subprime mortgagesand added more profits last year, is beefing up its gold holdings. Lastweek, it told clients it will offer its investors a new share classdenominated in gold. Gold is the largest investment in the portfolio of Greenlight, led by David Einhorn,who has bought exchange-traded funds holding gold as well as goldfutures contracts, according to a person familiar to the matter. Someof those buying gold predict nations will default on their debt, asthey spend money to help stabilize their economies. The spending couldlead to a burst of inflation, at least eventually, some say, whichcould help gold rise in price. But even deflation, or falling prices,could bolster gold, which usually does a good job storing value, thebulls say. Others simply see gold as a better alternative to crumblingstocks, corporate bonds and Treasurys with super-slim yields. Still,gold isn't an investment that produces any kind of cash flow, like ashare of a company or a fixed-income investment, and consumer demandfor gold-related products is down amid the global economic downturn. Those factors have long reduced its attractiveness to many investors. Thoughgold has been a robust performer of late, hitting $1,000 an ouncerecently before closing at $942 an ounce on Friday, it has been stuckin a range of $700 to $1,000 an ounce for much of the past few years.That raises questions about the potential for upside, especially ifstocks regain their footing. If gold can preserve value at a time whenmost other investments drop, that in itself could reward bulls, ofcourse. Write to Gregory Zuckerman at gregory.zuckerman@wsj.com

highlander

政府可能会加大黄金储备。

黄金储备量：
中国：400吨
美国：〉8000吨

highlander

约翰.鲍尔森投资金矿

MARCH 18, 2009

Paulson Buys AngloGold Stake

By JEFFREY SPARSHOTT

Diversified miner Anglo American PLC Tuesday said it sold off its remaining stake in AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. to investment funds managed by Paulson & Co. Inc. for $1.28 billion.

Anglo American's long-standing policy has been to sell down its stake in the South African gold miner. But the disposal of a large block of shares was an "opportunistic" sale made after advisers at Deutsche Bank brought Anglo American in contact with the U.S. hedge fund, people with knowledge of the transaction said.

As recently as Feb. 19 Anglo said in a regulatory filing that it "intends to remain a significant shareholder in AngloGold Ashanti in the medium term."

Uncertainty about when Anglo American would sell down its stake weighed on AngloGold's shares.

"The Anglo American share overhang, with its depressing effect on our share price, has now gone and I'm excited about the opportunities that lie ahead for us," AngloGold CEO Mark Cutifani said.

Mr. Cutifani welcomed Paulson, led by President John Paulson, as one of AngloGold's biggest shareholders. The fund bought 39.91 million shares from Anglo American, or 11.3% of outstanding shares.

Paulson spokesman Armel Leslie said: "We believe Anglogold Ashanti is one of the best managed and most undervalued of the major global gold mining companies. We look forward to the implementation of their global expansion strategy."

Anglo American said it would use the funds for general corporate purposes. The miner's net debt -- about $11 billion at the end of 2008 -- has weighed on its share price.

Anglo American now holds no shares in the gold miner, the company said. Paulson paid $32 per share.

Anglo American has reduced its stake in AngloGold several times since announcing it would relinquish its majority holding in 2006. Anglo held 42% of AngloGold in April 2006, 17.3% as of Oct. 9, 2007 and 13.3% as of Feb. 5, and 11.88% as of Feb. 18, according to filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

Write to Jeffrey Sparshott at jeffrey.sparshott@dowjones.com

［此帖子已被 highlander 在 2009-3-20 11:26:52 编辑过］

掷铜板的人

鲍尔森（可能也包括罗杰斯）等人善于从社会的变化中发觉投资机会，这也是投资思路的一种，值得借鉴！这种思路跟巴菲特在动态的社会中寻找稳态不同，而是在人人认为处于静态的生活和社会中寻找变化的端倪。。。我现在也觉得似乎从社会的动态变化中寻找机会似乎更容易入手。。。

近年来，中国人甚至全球的人，服用维生素的量呈现加大之势，我到去年年底时发觉了这一现象。如果当时研究一下维生素厂商类上市公司，可以找到其中的潜力股低位布局。遗憾的是，今年1-2月份参与了000597东北制药（VC）的行情，竟然是根据技术分析的原则买卖的。羞死我也！

highlander

约翰.鲍尔森2008年排名第二，2007第一 ：

2008年对冲基金个人收入最高者：

1  James Simons          Renaissance Technologies Corp.     $2.5 billion
2  John Paulson          Paulson & Co.                      $2.0 billion
3  John Arnold           Centaurus Energy                   $1.5 billion
4  George Soros          Soros Fund Management              $1.1 billion
5  Raymond Dalio         Bridgewater Associates Inc.        $780 million
6  Bruce Kovner          Caxton Associates LLC              $640 million
7  David Shaw            D.E. Shaw & Co.                    $275 million
8  Stanley Druckenmiller Duquesne Capital Management LLC    $260 million
9= David Harding         Winton Capital Management LLC      $250 million
9= Alan Howard           Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP $250 million
9= John Taylor Jr.       FX Concepts Inc.                   $250 million

2007年：

    1. $3.7 billion     John Paulson          Paulson & Co.
    2. $2.9 billion     George Soros          Soros Fund Management
    3. $2.8 billion     James Simons          Renaissance Technologies Corp.
    4. $1.7 billion     Philip Falcone        Harbinger Capital Partners
    5. $1.5 billion     Kenneth Griffin       Citadel Investment Group
    6. $900 million     Steven Cohen          SAC Capital Advisors
    7. $750 million     Timothy Barakett      Atticus Capital
    8. $710 million     Stephen Mandel Jr.    Lone Pine Capital
    9. $625 million     John Griffin          Blue Ridge Capital
    10. $520 million    O. Andreas Halvorsen  Viking Global Investors

highlander

长期看，美元贬值很难避免。

快乐无罪

大概在yahoo上查了一下美国黄金股的PE，简单对比一下，国内一些黄金股的PE似乎还不算太离谱，当然买港股的紫金会更划算。

DIRECT COMPETITOR COMPARISON

GOLD ABX GFI IAG Industry Market Cap: N/A 29.15B 8.06B 2.50B N/A Employ­ees: N/A N/A 47,209 N/A N/A Qtrly Rev Growth (yoy): N/A 10.10% 30.30% 7.90% N/A Revenue (ttm): N/A 7.91B 2.63B 869.64M N/A Gross Margin (ttm): N/A 47.77% 58.22% 48.04% N/A EBITDA (ttm): N/A 3.14B 910.63M 342.14M N/A Oper Margins (ttm): N/A 26.68% 20.87% 4.91% N/A Net Income (ttm): N/A 785.00M 271.33M -9.92M N/A EPS (ttm): N/A 0.890 0.39 -0.034 N/A P/E (ttm): N/A 37.52 31.64 N/A N/A PEG (5 yr expected): 0.71 0.8 12.87 1.32 N/A P/S (ttm): N/A 3.68 3.09 2.90 N/A

ABX = Barrick Gold Corporation

GFI = Gold Fields Ltd.

IAG = IAMGOLD Corp.

highlander

黄金股：2899.hk, 601899, 600489, 600547. 当然，它们已涨了一波了。

btjb

现在是资源为王，黄金资源就是王冠上的明珠！