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The Real Warren Buffett - 巴菲特每周新闻专贴

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-19 09:46:33 | 显示全部楼层

几日未更新,来一篇周日《奥马哈世界先驱报》(就是当初巴老欲购不售的那家)的文章,其基本上也将最近有关巴老的新闻动态都概括了:



Warren Watch: Sokol plugs electric car, Berkshire investment

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-26 17:14:26 | 显示全部楼层

巴老的投资秘方?看看一位拥有12年专业投资生涯的海洋生物学博士如何找到这迷人的‘点金术’,他似乎对《雪球》作者早有认识和了解。


Warren Buffett's 'Secret' Investment Formula
by: Todd Kenyon January 25, 2009

As one of the most successful investors ever, Warren Buffett's methods are widely studied and many attempt to replicate them. Mr. Buffett has frequently discussed his investing criteria and the influence Ben Graham had on him in the early days. And he has repeatedly said over the decades that value investing is simple, but not easy.

So just how simple is Buffett's investing methodology? There are many stories out there that Buffett does not use a computer (other than to play bridge online), hence he does not use the ubiquitous Wall Street crutch, the spreadsheet financial model. Buffett also doesn't use a calculator. Maybe it's that Buffett is just so darn sharp that his brain is the only calculator he needs.

There is no doubt Buffett is super sharp, and able to see what matters and quickly and efficiently evaluate it. But, I think that is just a bonus for Buffett - not a requirement to practice his investing style. He would agree, I think, since he has frequently stated that investing success only requires an average IQ. Certainly we are now very familiar with the damage done by those who supposedly have superior IQ's.

Alice Schroeder recently released "The Snowball", the most complete account of The Man to date (and next on my reading list - if I only had any time to read books). Ms. Schroeder had unprecedented access, spending years in Buffett's office going through his old files. How did she gain Buffett's approval? Through her work as an insurance analyst a decade ago for Paine Webber and Morgan Stanley. Her reports from that era on Berkshire (BRK.A) are the only coherent analyst reports on Buffett's empire that I have ever read. And her valuation model for Berkshire was the best I've seen. I still use my own version of it. I think she won the Buffett lottery because she was the only one who "got" Berkshire on Wall Street.

Schroeder recently gave a keynote at the Darden Value Investing Conference. In it she clearly laid out Buffett's "secret" investment methodology. But first she also made it clear that Buffett is a unique animal. At age 7 he asked for a book titled "Bond Salesmanship" for Xmas and read it cover to cover. She describes him as someone who is always thinking "what more can I do", especially to get an edge on the other guy. And, he is a learning machine with a cumulative mental file cabinet. And he always thinks like a horse handicapper, he's always thinking about probabilities.

So what is Buffett's secret method? Here it is step by step:

1. Look at the risk of loss. What is the probabilty that I will permanently lose money here, and what could happen that would result in total loss? If there is ANYTHING that could reasonably result in a total loss, stop right there. Buffett never tries to talk himself into any investment. He says that much of his success is from immediately passing on things due to realistic appraisal of catastrophic risk.
2. Look at historical financial data. Look at the historical quarterly sales, expenses and profits (and cash flow of course) for each line of business or operating unit. DO NOT build a model or try to predict the future. Schroeder says there was not one model of any kind in Buffett's files - just simple hand-written tables with historical financial data.
3. Once he's happy with the first two critieria, he sets his price. He "only" requires that he receive a day one return of 15%, with a good likelihood that his return will compound from there. Although Schroeder is not clear on this, I assume he looks at cash earnings or the so-called "owner's earnings" for his 15% return. Essentially this is cash from operation, less one-time and options benefits, minus maintenance or essential capital expenditures. So you could say he is looking to buy in at 6.67 (or less) x today's cash flow - something that's been nearly impossible up until September.


There you have it, Buffett's secret. Extreme simplicity that requires extreme discipline to execute. Buffett has the advantage of not having to answer to anyone. He says he gets up and looks in the mirror, then everyone has had their say for the day. Furthermore, he believes that 90% of being successful in business is guts: you must only answer to yourself. He can wait indefinitely for a good opportunity. This is in direct contrast to the typical money manager, who has to answer to clients, employers, media, and on and on. Hence Buffett's is largely an IMPOSSIBLE strategy to execute on Wall Street. However, as an individual investor you only have to wrestle with your own psyche, and that will be the hardest part of investing like Buffett.

What about future predictions?? Everyone knows the stock market is always looking 6 months ahead, always anticipating the future. Buffett says that the whole purpose of investing with Graham's infamous "margin of safety" is to render forecasting unnecessary. And margin of safety is ALWAYS a function of price paid - hence Buffet's 15% day one return requirement. Imagine if everyone invested this way. Even more Wall Streeters would be out of jobs: analysts, strategists, economists - worthless (not that they have any value now - they're just paid as if they do).

I plan on presenting a series of stock ideas over time in the premium blog that I think fit Buffett's "secret" method. There has been no better time in my 12 year investing career to look for such bargains. Sure it's tough out there, and anything you buy today will likely go down tomorrow. Buffett was recently <A href="http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/_Blogs/Warren_Buffett_Watch/_DAILY%20POSTS/Documents/Buffett-Brokaw%20Dateline%20Interview%202008-01-18.pdf">interviewed by Tom Brokaw, and had this to say about how to deal with today's market, and how investors can steel themselves against the rampant fear and panic:

If you own a farm nobody tells you when it's gone down 50 percent 'cause you don't get a quote every day. But you really look to the farm and what it produces to determine whether you made a good investment. Now if people look to the newspaper every day at the price of a stock to determine whether they made a good investment they're making a mistake.

They have to look to the business, the asset itself. If you own an apartment house you wouldn't get a quote on it every day. You'd just look at-- what the rent rolls were, and your taxes were and expenses were. And if they all came in with--in line with what you expected when you bought it, you'd feel you'd made a satisfactory investment, and you'd never get a quote on it. So I don't look at quotes. I can't tell you what Berkshire Hathaway is selling for today."

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发表于 2009-2-6 09:02:13 | 显示全部楼层

“巴菲特指标”显示:买股票正当时

  本报讯 “股神”巴菲特近期又开始有所行动了。美国最大摩托车生产商哈雷于美国当地时间 4日宣布,公司将发行总价值6亿美元的优先偿还债券,其中一半由巴菲特旗下的投资部门买入。

  哈雷希望集资10亿美元来支撑它的金融服务部门,所以此次巴菲特帮了一个大忙。据悉,另一半优先偿还债券将由哈雷公司最大股东、资产管理公司Davis Selected Advisers LP认购,上述债券于2014年到期,年息为15厘,比目前市场上一般的“投资”评级债券高出一倍。

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  有分析人士表示,巴菲特的注资会帮助哈雷吸引到其它有意效仿的投资者。然而,与股权投资者相比,巴菲特具有“优先权”。

  巴菲特一直喜欢将自己认为有实力的企业收入自己的囊中。截至目前,巴菲特已经向通用电气、可口可乐、高盛和百威啤酒等公司注资,现在哈雷也成为了“巴菲特家族”的其中一员。据估计,巴菲特当前所持企业债券及股份金额已经超过850亿美元。

  在获得巴菲特投资的消息刺激下,原本业绩欠佳的哈雷股价出现暴涨,在当日在纽约股市中,其股价一度飙升22.6%,创自1987年10月以来最大涨幅。

  而根据巴菲特和其好友提出的一项指标,现在就是买进股票的时机了!这个指标的计算基于美国股市的市值与衡量国民经济发展状况的国民生产总值(GNP),巴菲特认为,若两者之间的比率处于70%至80%的区间之内,这时买进股票就会有不错的收益。但如果在这个比例偏高时买进股票,就等于在“玩火”。

  对此,有美国媒体列出了近几十年来该比率的数值,在今年1月底至2月初的这段时间里,上述比率已经回落到75%附近。而在2000年第一季度的时候,该比率曾一度高达190%。除此之外,巴菲特在去年10月17日时也曾向《纽约时报》表示,自己已经在开始买进美国的股票,如果股价下跌,他还将“增持”。

  就在昨日,巴菲特再次向金融企业伸出救援之手。全球第二大再保险公司瑞士再保险预计,2008年公司将出现10亿瑞郎(约合8.8亿美元)的净亏损,但巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔?哈撒韦公司宣布向其注资30亿瑞郎(约合26.3亿美元)。根据两者之间的协议,瑞士再保险将按12%的折扣,向巴菲特发行永久可转换资本工具。巴菲特可以在三年之后将其以每股25瑞士法郎的价格,转为瑞士再保险的股票。巴菲特近期多次“出手”与“巴菲特指标”之间或许存在着一定关系。

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-2-7 23:00:51 | 显示全部楼层

谢谢ICE的信息,巴老投资Harley-Davidson和Swiss Re,15%年息无担保票据和12%年息可转债构成为其安全边际,这和其多年打造的金漆招牌不无关系,旁人只有艳羡的份了。

言归正传,让我们再回到巴老对BNSF投资上来,继1月15、16和20三日连续买入四百四十万股后,Berkshire Hathway于1月30日再次有二百三十多万股入账,所不同的乃这次是去年12月3日Berksire售出‘卖出期权’带来的结果。至此,Berkshire Hathway总共持有76,777,029股,占Burlington Northern Santa Fe发行总股份的22.4%。


Tuesday, 3 Feb 2009
Warren Buffett's Burlington Northern Stake Tops 22% With New Options-Related Stock Buy
Posted By: Alex Crippen

Warren Buffett's stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe has reached 22.4 percent, with a new options-related stock purchase of over two million shares.


Here comes that Burlington Northern freight train again.

In an SEC filing last night, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway says it bought 2,325,000 shares of the freight railroad for $75 each last Friday, January 30. That's a total of $174.4 million.

Burlington Northern closed at $66.25 on that day, but Berkshire didn't buy the shares on the open market.

The Burlington purchase is the result of put options sold by Berkshire on December 3. On that day, the railroad's closed at $77.50.

In exchange for $14.8 million up front, Berkshire agreed to buy the 2.3 million Burlington shares at $75 each at the end of January. The buyer was paying for a form of insurance. In exchange for the premium of almost $15 million, the buyer of the options got protection against Burlington's shares falling below $75, which they have. If the stock had stayed above $75, the holder of the options would not have exercised them and held onto the stock instead.

So, while Berkshire paid an 'extra' $8.75 a share, that is partially offset by the $6.35 a share premium it was paid last December.

That's a net 'loss' of about $5.5 million for this batch, but similar options-related transactions last month have been money-makers for Berkshire. Gurufocus.com calculates that in total Berkshire saved about $20 million through the sale of puts.

Based on the filings, this latest buy accounts for all of the put options Berkshire has sold on Burlington.

So far, the Burlington position has been a tough one for Buffett. After rallying last spring to almost $115, the stock has dropped almost 19 percent over the past twelve months.

Most of his purchases have been in the high $70s or low $80s. Earlier in January, however, Berkshire picked up almost 4.4 million shares at an average price of $62.15, below its mid-day price today, Tuesday, of just under $67.

Berkshire now reports owning 76,777,029 shares of Burlington Northern.

Current Burlington price: [BNI 72.94 3.34 (+4.8%) ]

Current Berkshire stock prices:

Class A: [US;BRK.A 89350.0 2330.00 (+2.68%) ]

Class B: [US;BRK.B 2910.0 39.00 (+1.36%) ]

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发表于 2009-2-21 10:12:51 | 显示全部楼层
巴菲特减持强生和宝洁股权
[淘股吧]
http://www.sina.com.cn 2009年02月18日 10:21 新浪财经

  新浪财经讯 北京时间2月18日上午消息,据国外媒体报道,股神沃伦?巴菲特(Warren Buffett)麾下的伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司周二表示,该公司已分别减持全球最大医疗保健产品生产商强生和全球最大消费品企业宝洁的股权,因巴菲特将注意力转向固定收益投资。

  伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司递交给监管机构的文件显示,该公司在截止去年12月31日的三个月时间内减持强生股权54%至2860万股,并减持宝洁股权9%。

  巴菲特通过为收购提供融资、购买公司债以及购买公司优先股等形式对美国公司下注。过去六个月,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司已经同意投资购买通用电气和高盛总计80亿美元的优先股。

  美国大学商学院(Kogod School of Business)金融学教授马丁?杰拉尔德(Gerald Martin)说:“当你的固定收益投资回报率达到10%至15%,为何还投资股票呢?他(巴菲特)重新调整投资组合是有充分理由的。”

  另外,伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司还减持US Bancorp股权7.4%至6760万股。该银行去年第四季度净利润骤降65%,并已经同意以优先股的形式出售美国财政部问题资产救助计划(Troubled Asset Relief Program)提供的66亿美元贷款。(兴亚)

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发表于 2009-2-21 10:13:34 | 显示全部楼层
巴菲特投资组合的最新变化
[淘股吧]

根据CNBC最新公布的巴菲特Berkshire Hathaway, 2008年第四季度末的投资组合出现的主要变动如下:

一. 最新投资名单(ADDED STAKES)

出现在巴菲特投资组合中增加了两个最新名单,一个是能源服务公司,另一个是水处理公司。最新买入:

1. 能源服务公司Constellation Energy 19,894,322股,现值约4.8亿美元;
2. 水处理公司Nalco Holding 8,739,100股,现值约9700万美元。

二. 增持名单(INCREASED STAKES)


大幅增持的股票有四只,其中一家铁路运营公司;一家液压电力设备制造服务提供商;一家空调设备制造服务提供商;和一家能源电力公司。增持买入:

1. 铁路运营公司Burlington Northern增持9.9%,由63,785,418股增持至 70,089,829股(2009年1月30日进一步增至76,777,029股);
2. 液压电力设备制造服务提供商Eaton Corp. 持股由2,908,700股,增持10.0%至 3,200,000股(该股为2008年第三季度新增名单);
3. 空调设备制造服务提供商Ingersoll-Rand持股由5,636,600股,增持38.1%,至7,782,600股;
4. 能源电力公司NRG Energy持股由5,000,000,增持44.0%,至7,200,000;

三、减持名单

在去年及其动荡的环境中,更引人关注的不是巴菲特的增持名单,而是减持名单。巴菲特大幅减持的有7家公司,其中最引人关注的是大幅减持了两家健康用品公司。一家是Johnson & Johnson,减持幅度达53.7%;另一家则是宝洁(Procter & Gamble),减持幅度9%。减持名单:

1. Johnson & Johnson,减持幅度53.7%,由61,754,448股,减至28,611,591股;

2. Procter & Gamble,减持幅度9.0%,由105,847,000股,减至9,530,990股;

3. Carmax,减持幅度4.4%,由18,444,100股减至17,636,500股(原先持股21,300,000股);

4. ConocoPhillips,减持幅度4.8%,由79,896,273股,减至59,688,000股;

5. US Bancorp,减持幅度7.4%,由72,937,126股,减至67,551,426股;

6. UnitedHealth Group,减持幅度1.3%,由6,379,900股,减至6,300,000;

7. Wells Fargo,减持幅度0.1%,由290,407,668股,减至290,244,868股。

四、维持不变的名单

2008年第四季度是美国股市波动最大的阶段,巴菲特仍保持了他一贯的做法:稳定持股。所以其投资组合中大部分的股票仓位并没有大幅变化,可谓以不变应万变。

1. American Express, 151,610,700股;

2. Bank of America, 5,000,000股;

3. Coca-Cola, 200,000,000股;

4. Comcast, 12,000,000股;

5. Comdisco, 1,538,377股;

6. Costco Wholesale, 5,254,000股;

7. Gannett, 3,447,600股;

8. General Electric, 7,777,900股;

9. GlaxoSmithKline, 1,510,500股;

10. Home Depot, 3,700,000股;

11. Iron Mountain, 3,372,200股;

12. Kraft Foods, 138,272,500股;

13. Lowes Companies, 6,500,000股;

14. M&T Bank, 6,715,060 股;

15. Moody's, 48,000,000股;

16. Nike, 7,641,000股;

17. Norfolk Southern, 1,933,000股;

18. Sanofi Aventis, 3,903,933股;

19. SunTrust Banks, 3,204,600股;

20. Torchmark, 2,823,879股;

21. USG, 17,072,192股;

22. Union Pacific, 8,906,000股;

23. United Parcel Service, 1,429,200股;

24. Wabco Holdings, 2,700,000 股;

25. Wal-Mart Stores, 19,944,300股;

26. Washington Post, 1,727,765股;

27. Wellpoint, 4,777,300股;

28. Wesco Financial, 5,703,087股。
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-26 16:42:19 | 显示全部楼层

避免浪费巴菲特八年好回报的错误,The Motley Fool这篇文章通过引用巴老的教训揭示了价值投资者们首先应该避免的昂贵错误。


Avoid the Mistake That Cost Buffett 8 Years of Better Returns
By Richard Gibbons
January 23, 2009

There's one investment strategy you won't read much about on Fool.com, even though many have tried it. In fact, Warren Buffett spent eight years working with it before discarding it as worthless.

What investment strategy is that? Technical analysis.

Invest like a lemming
Technical analysis is the practice of predicting where stocks will trade based on charts of historical pricing and volume information. There's a certain logic to it. Stocks trade based on supply and demand, which is greatly influenced by investors' attitudes about the stocks. The charts should reflect those attitudes and might predict where the individual stocks will go.

It's an attractive idea. Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) has bounced between $45 and $50 quite a few times in the past few years. Why not buy at the low, and sell at the high? Or look at DeVry's (NYSE: DV) chart. Clearly, investors love the stock. Its rise from $15 to $60 seems unstoppable. Why not jump aboard and profit?

Technical analysis is a simple yet compelling strategy. You can see why Buffett spent years early in his career trying to master it.

An expensive mistake
But Buffett discovered one small problem. Technical analysis didn't work. He explained, "I realized that technical analysis didn't work when I turned the chart upside down and didn't get a different answer."

After eight years of trying, he concluded that it was the wrong way to invest. Then he focused on the teachings of Ben Graham, which stressed business fundamentals, finding a strategy that both made sense and, more importantly, worked.

Three simple rules
The billionaire discussed that strategy at the 2008 Berkshire Hathaway general meeting. When he was asked how to avoid the crowd mind-set, he said he simply followed Graham's three most important lessons:

Buy stocks with a margin of safety.
A stock is part of a business.
The market is there to serve you, not instruct you.
The first lesson usually makes the headlines. It means that you should buy stocks for less than they're worth. But when Buffett talks about the second and third lessons, he's basically admitting that he wasted eight years of his investing life.

Buying a business
After all, thinking about a stock as part of a business is the opposite of what technical analysis is all about. Technical analysis focuses on trading securities. It doesn't matter whether the security is a share of Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP), with its prescription pharmaceuticals, animal health, and consumer health care business segments; or whether that security is a derivative promising the delivery of three tons of Italian meatballs. It's all the same because technical analysis doesn't care about the business -- or the fundamentals.

In Graham's second lesson, stocks are far more than just pieces of paper or lines on graphs, and to understand them, you need to understand the business. If you're looking at WellPoint (NYSE: WLP), ignore whether the stock has been up three days in a row, and focus instead on how the company plans to combat rising medical costs.

Ways to serve man
Similarly, when Buffett says the market isn't there to instruct, he's saying the movements in the market aren't telling you how to invest.

When Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) fell below $3 per share in 2002, the market was saying that Wal-Mart and Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) would eat the young upstart's lunch.

When McDonald's hit $13 in 2003, the market was announcing that the Big Mac would end up in the Museum of Neat Ideas Gone Wrong, alongside the tapeworm diet, land wars in Asia, and Paris Hilton's home videos.

But in both cases, the market was wrong.

So, instead of listening to the market, Buffett seeks to take advantage of it. Sometimes, the market will offer to buy a stock for far more than it's actually worth. Other times, it'll offer you the chance to buy shares of a great company for far less than its fair value. An investor who understands the true value of a business will be able to profit when the market offers great companies on sale.

The Foolish bottom line
You can learn from Buffett's error -- don't focus on charts. Instead, understand businesses and seek excellent stocks that the market offers at low prices. These days, the market is particularly treacherous. Some stocks that seem cheap will turn out to be very expensive. Others that are simply beaten down by negativity will post amazing returns.

Our Motley Fool Inside Value team is working to take advantage of the situation, and we've identified several stocks we think will post some of those amazing returns. If you're interested in reading about them, click here for a 30-day free trial.

This article was first published June 16, 2008. It has been updated.

Fool contributor Richard Gibbons should not be used as a dessert topping. He owns shares of WellPoint. The Motley Fool owns shares of Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire is a Motley Fool Inside Value and Stock Advisor recommendation. Wal-Mart and WellPoint are Inside Value recommendations. Netflix and Amazon.com are Stock Advisor selections. The Fool's disclosure policy bears an eerie resemblance to Charlie Munger.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-2-4 12:25:02 | 显示全部楼层

原来只知道巴老在Ebay上出售每年一次的午餐券,却不知道其传记作者早在98年就开始了每年一度以‘圣人(巴老)忠告’为主题的晚餐聚会,真所谓‘近朱者赤’,到底谁影响了谁?只可惜一切事物都有终结的时候。


Published Sunday January 25, 2009
Warren Watch: No 'sage advice' dinner this year
BY STEVE JORDON
WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER


Warren Buffett chats with Alice Schroeder on his way to an Omaha press conference in 2004. She plans to attend this year's annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting.

The author of the latest and most extensive biography of Warren Buffett has hosted yearly "sage advice" dinners since 1998 on the evenings before Berkshire Hathaway's annual meetings in Omaha, with Buffett as the main attraction.

But the tradition is now over.

Alice Schroeder began the events when she was an insurance analyst with PaineWebber, inviting investors, friends and others to dine while she asked questions of Buffett in an informal setting. As many as 400 people have attended the 1½-hour off-the-record sessions.

In 2003 Schroeder switched from analyzing Berkshire to researching and writing a biography, "The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life."

Last spring's meeting at the Ironwood Country Club included Bill Gates, Microsoft founder and Berkshire board member.

Last week she sent a message to those who attended recent dinners, saying 2008 was the finale.

She added: "I'm very grateful to Warren for his five years of cooperation on the book. . . . Warren has been generous with his time for more than a decade, but now has decided to bring the era of sage advice dinners to an end. Although I know that you will be as disappointed as I am, we can all have fond memories of these years."

From her home in Connecticut, Schroeder said she plans to attend this year's annual meeting, scheduled for May 2, and see Buffett sometime that weekend.

"All good things come to an end," she said. "It wasn't going to go on forever. It was great."

A Berkshire spokeswoman said, "Mr. Buffett likes Alice, likes her book and has received a number of glowing letters from friends about it. But at some point, like the charity golf outing he once hosted, an event runs its course."

The Wall Street Journal reported in early December that the book has had "strong reviews but may not earn back its hefty $7.2 million advance." BookScan estimated sales at 328,000 copies in the United States and 29,000 in the United Kingdom.

The listed price is $39.95, although some stores offer discounts.

Views on Obama


Two Nebraskans, or at least one Nebraskan and a guy who used to live in Nebraska, had a recent conversation about President Barack Obama's future.

Tom Brokaw, who worked in Omaha before his NBC network career, asked Buffett why he thinks Obama is the right president for the current economy.

"Obama can talk to the American public about that," Buffett said. "I mean, they'll want to listen to him, and he's very easy to listen to. And you can learn a lot by listening to him. So I think this can be an educational experience for the country.

"He's a great editor of people's ideas, and then he's not afraid to act. I mean, he's got a confidence about him, which is warranted. It's not an arrogance, but it's a confidence."

Buffett also said Obama believes in free enterprise, "where there's more and more goods and services to go around. But he does believe in having everybody get a better shot at it than it's existed in the last 20 years."

Buffett said he expects more regulation in the financial industry, but it's more important to "create the right incentives for the people also that are running those institutions."

Where will the economy find help?

"It will be from the American people, big-time," Buffett said. "The American genius is that it frees up millions and millions of people with all kinds of potential, sometimes potential they didn't even know, to come up with things that I can't dream of myself.

"I will guarantee you that 30 or 40 years from now, you will see all kinds of things being turned out in the United States that people hunger for but that they couldn't conceive of themselves."

Buffett said Obama has an unusual amount of good will behind him, including people who didn't vote for him but who want him to succeed. "I mean, people realize this is something very big and something important."

He also said on PBS's "Nightly Business Report" last week that he isn't really advising Obama, doesn't talk with him often and will probably talk with him even less often now that he's president.

"He doesn't need my advice on anything," Buffett said.

While Obama understands economics and will work with good people, Buffett said, he can't produce fast, dramatic results even though the government will do everything it can to fix the economy.

"People's buying habits have changed. Fear has taken over," Buffett said. "And fear is a tough thing to fight."

Airport purchase


Bloomberg News reported that Berkshire's NetJets Inc. division is close to buying the Egelsbach airport near Frankfurt, Germany, although the City of Egelsbach, a shareholder in the airport, hasn't decided whether to sell.

City governments in Offenbach and Langen and municipal utilities have agreed to sell their shares of the airport, which is Germany's largest for private and business flights. Bloomberg said the facility needs $38.6 million in improvements, including a runway extension.

The airport said NetJets would take into consideration neighboring communities and would reduce noise and limit traffic to 100,000 planes a year, about 270 a day.

How to fail


Donald Keough, a longtime Buffett friend, Berkshire director and retired president of Coca-Cola, recently discussed the ideas behind his book, "The Ten Commandments for Business Failure," with USA Today.

"People, companies and countries can get into trouble when they start to think they're successful," he said. "They get arrogant."

Keough said business leaders should continue to take risks whether things are going well or not.

"There's always something to be afraid of," he said. "It was overpopulation. Then the killer bees were coming to get you. There's always some bad news out there.

"There is great concern that China and India are emerging as economic powers. Over the long term, that will help all industrialized countries. It's very easy to be afraid of the future. Don't do it. I'm no economist, but two years from now, the financial crisis will be just a piece of history."

Honesty is essential for CEOs, he said, who have to hear the truth. When Coca-Cola brought out its new formula, consumers rebelled and demanded that the old formula return.

"I went on television and said, 'You were right and we were wrong, and we're bringing back the original Coke.' All the anger turned to gratitude, and it worked out perfectly."

Keough said the flood of information today can make it difficult for people to think clearly. "I'd like a holiday when everyone would have to turn off the data-producing toys so that we could all have a day to think."

He said he remains curious about the future.

"Kids in school right now have some of the most exciting days in the history of the world in front of them," he said. "You don't learn to swim until you get into the water. People need to plunge into life."

Still part of deal


Berkshire may end up "owning" part of Constellation Energy after all, but only indirectly.

The Daily Deal online service reported that Constellation agreed to sell most of its London-based coal and freight operations and European energy trading units to an affiliate of Goldman Sach Group Inc. for an undisclosed sum.

Berkshire invested in Goldman last fall, but its purchase offer for Constellation, a leading Baltimore utility, was called off after a French company made a higher offer.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-2-23 11:03:08 | 显示全部楼层

上周二,美国SEC公布了去年底Berkshire Hathway的投资组合清单。一直对巴老投资持怀疑态度的专家总算找到证据了,跳出来对巴老去年10月在《纽约时报》发文号召大家买入美国一事,进行大肆批判。其理由无非是巴老一边号召大家买入美国,一边却在减持强生、宝洁和康菲石油这些极具代表性的美国公司等云云。这位Jim Cramer和他的另一位批巴专家朋友Doug Kass在thestreet.com上安营扎寨,欲建立起长期批巴阵线,有兴趣而又不怕浪费时间者,可以过去看看。

下面来一篇CNBC针对怀疑者们的回复,厘清为什么巴老不是一个伪君子。


Thursday, 19 Feb 2009
Why Warren Buffett Isn't a Hypocrite
Posted By: Alex Crippen

Warren Buffett is getting some heat from CNBC's Jim Cramer for Berkshire Hathaway's sales of big chunks of stock last fall, including billions of dollars worth of Johnson & Johnson.

On a CNBC Special Report Tuesday, Cramer advised investors not to follow Buffett's lead this time around.

Then Cramer wrote on his site, TheStreet.com, that Buffett was "selling America" even as he was writing an op-ed piece titled Buy American. I Am. for the New York Times.

Last night, on his Mad Money program, Cramer revisited Buffett as he listed what he sees as the 10 biggest myths and misperceptions in the market today.

Cramer is not only accusing Buffett of making bad decisions, he's implying that Buffett has been hypocritically ignoring his own public call in the Times to buy U.S. stocks, misleading all those investors who 'copy' Berkshire's buys and sells.

But there is another way of looking at it.

Buffett was clear in his Times piece that he was buying U.S. stocks for his personal account. For himself, and for many investors, he saw cheap equities as the best way to put cash to work.

But Berkshire has other opportunities to make money that simply aren't available to everyone else. Most notably it can become a lender of last resort to solid companies going through a difficult time, and it can collect a very hefty interest rate for those loans.

Last fall, Buffett wasn't "buying American" for Berkshire, but he was "loaning American." A total of eight billion dollars went to General Electric and Goldman Sachs. Those loans pay 10 percent a year, guaranteed. The major risk is a collapse of these enormous icons of American business, a risk small enough for Buffett to accept.

And those billions of dollars of loans may very well have come from stock sales. After all, Buffett always wants to have a base level of cash on hand and resists borrowing money to finance investments.

Even if Buffett thought Johnson & Johnson would ultimately generate a solid return, it seems unlikely to expect that return would be 10 percent a year.

Buffett is not just looking for good investments for Berkshire, he's looking for the best investments he can find, that carry as little risk as possible.

Loaning billions to GE and Goldman at 10 percent over a few years could easily be a better use of that money than letting it ride in the stock market. (It does imply that he saw the stocks he sold as less likely to move higher than other equities in the portfolio.)

Buffett does not encourage anyone to replicate his Berkshire investments. He wasn't necessarily trying to send a "sell" signal on J&J and P&G, or U.S. stocks in general.

He was probably raising money to take advantage of GE and Goldman's need for quick cash, an opportunity unique to Berkshire Hathaway.

Current stock prices:

Berkshire Class A: [US;BRK.A 77000.0 -1600.00 (-2.04%) ]

Berkshire Class B: [US;BRK.B 2387.0 -129.50 (-5.15%) ]

Johnson & Johnson: [JNJ 54.65 -1.28 (-2.29%) ]

Procter & Gamble:[PG 50.25 -0.88 (-1.72%) ]

General Electric:[GE 9.38 -0.68 (-6.76%) ]

Goldman Sachs:[GS 84.59 -1.42 (-1.65%) ]


PS:

当然,市场已经做出短期的判断,即做空Bershire Hathway,BRKs跟随大盘再创新低。

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发表于 2009-3-2 19:33:06 | 显示全部楼层

巴菲特承认去年做过蠢事 资产大幅缩水百亿美元

巴菲特《致股东的信》摘要

  ●“美国经济系统没有被破坏,还在继续释放潜力,美国最美好的时光还在后面。”

  ●“一个强有力的政府是在未来经济复苏道路上必不可少的,可以避免类似2008年那样的金融系统崩溃。”

  ●“在抵押债券市场上出现的让人震惊的损失,最大的原因就是所有的销售人员、评级机构和投资者使用的基础模型有缺陷。”

  ●“投资者应该对现在的基础模式持一种怀疑的态度来进行未来的投资。”

  新快报综合报道“股神”巴菲特每年都会向投资旗舰巴郡的股东发出《致股东的信》,据香港媒体昨日消息,金融海啸之下,他今年特别承认自己去年投资时“曾做过些蠢事”,在油价高位时大手笔购入石油股,并透露巴郡去年净资产缩水115亿美元(约合人民币786亿元),但他对未来仍感乐观。

  巴菲特在信中表示,他对未来的投资忠告是??“Beware of geeks bearing formulas”??谨慎对待数字的影响。
巴郡去年净收入大跌62%至49.9亿美元,即每股3224美元。另外,巴郡每股账面值减少9.6%,是巴菲特掌舵44年以来表现最差的一年,亦是继2001年每股账面值跌6.2%后,期内第2次净资产下跌。巴郡A股由前年底的每股14.2万美元跌至去年底的9.66万美元,踏入今年亦继续寻底,周五收市报7.86万美元。

  在主席致股东报告中,巴菲特坦言于2008年“至少犯了一个大错和数个较小的错”,蠢事之最是在油价接近历史高位时买入大量康菲石油股份,而没预期油价会大跌。他说,是该投资失利令巴郡损失数十亿美元。
入股爱尔兰银行劲蚀九成

  巴菲特另在信中透露,花了2.44亿美元购入两间爱尔兰银行的股份,当时以为很便宜,怎料到年底市值跌至2700万美元,账面蚀近90%。他套用网球术语,称这是“无压力下犯的错”。

  令巴郡损失最惨重的却是美国运通和可口可乐两只该公司长期持有的股份表现,前者的市值跌了50亿美元,后者则蒸发30亿美元。巴郡持有的大量富国银行股份,去年没太大损失,但今年才重创,巴郡去年底持有的3.04亿股富国股份,迄今市值已大跌逾半。

  不过,金融海啸来袭后股市暴泻,为“股神”提供大量投资机会,他就趁机注资高盛和通用电气等公司。

  他估计经济今年甚或以后仍会蹒跚而行,不过强调这无助预测股市升或跌。尽管如此,他对长远前景仍感乐观,认为“美国最好的日子在未来”。
巴菲特最新投资账单解读

  当美国金融危机不断加深时,“股神”巴菲特并没有放慢自己的投资步伐,只不过其策略稍稍有所改变。

  根据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)披露的资料显示,巴菲特的伯克希尔?哈撒韦(Berkshire Hathaway)公司对美国上市公司的投资组合去年四季度受到严重冲击,公司总资产从2008年9月末的698.9亿美元缩水26%至518.7亿美元。
股权投资或是负值

  资料同时显示,受金融危机冲击,伯克希尔公司投资的账面亏损大部分来自对金融股的投资。

  目前该公司持有的美国银行股份在去年12月底市值为7040万美元,较三个月前的1.75亿美元下滑60%。此外,美国富国银行等金融类股份价值也有大幅下滑。

  去年第四季度,巴菲特的伯克希尔最新买入的股票有两家,价值约6亿美元;增持公司有4家;减持公司达到7家。如果将减持和增持股票相抵,股权类投资可能是个负值。

  最引人关注的是,伯克希尔公司削减了对全球最大医疗保健品制造商美国强生、全球最大日用品制造商宝洁公司的持股比例。

  减持幅度最大的是美国强生,持股数量下调约54%,其次是宝洁公司,持股数量下调9%。

  此外,巴菲特还减持了美国合众银行7.4%,该银行去年第四季度净利润骤降65%。
大幅增持四家公司

  在保持仓位不变的重仓股名单中,可口可乐、美国银行、美国运通、沃尔玛、卡夫食品等都继续在榜。新出现在巴菲特投资组合的名单中,分别是一家能源服务公司星座能源和一家水处理公司纳尔科控股。

  大幅增持的四家公司分别来自铁路运营、电力、空调设备制造和液压电力设备制造行业。

  目前,巴菲特正在通过为并购提供融资、收购公司债券及优先股权的方式来投资美国企业。在过去6个月中,巴菲特通过伯克希尔公司共向通用电气及高盛投资了80亿美元,以收购这两家公司的优先股权。

  此外,为应对经济衰退的不利局势,巴菲特正在调整其投资结构,将投资重心向固定收益类资产转移。

  近几个月来,巴菲特频频买入一些年收益率高达10%?15%的公司债券,如26亿美元的瑞士再保险公司(年收益率10%);2.5亿美元的奢侈品珠宝商蒂芙尼(年收益率10%);3亿美元的摩托制造商哈雷戴维森(年收益率15%);1.5亿美元的希悦尔公司(年收益率12%)等等。

  如果加上高盛和通用电气,巴菲特在半年内投资于固定收益类产品的总金额已达116亿美元,投资权重远远高于股权类的投资产品。
积极购买高收益债券

  2007年的一项跟踪研究表明,如果投资者简单跟投巴菲特的投资组合,在过去的31年里也可取得25%的年收益率,两倍于标准普尔500指数的收益。

  不过,近期有不少权威人士正在挑战巴菲特的投资策略,质疑其投资策略已经过时,其中最著名的是CNBC电视台一个热门投资节目“疯钱”的主持人吉姆?克莱默(Jim Cramer)。对于其投资高盛和通用电气以及购买公司债,克莱默认为巴菲特并非“买入美国”,而是在“贷款美国”,误导大众。

  巴菲特真的是“廉颇老矣,尚能饭否”?事实上,巴菲特现在的持仓是一个“进可攻,退可守”的组合。

  首先,受金融危机影响,实体公司盈利受损,短期内股票市场将极其动荡。高收益率的固定收益类产品此时几乎就是一条诺亚方舟。同时,公司债券具有极其有限的买入窗口时间,当雷曼兄弟申请破产保护后,BBB级的债券收益率一度飙升至10.2%,创下17年的高点。同一等级的债券,收益率在一年前只有6.1%。

  债券收益率的高企,是由金融危机中流动性冻结造成的,一旦危机缓解,流动性解冻,债券收益率自会回落。这是一个稍纵即逝的投资机会。而股权产品的窗口时间更具弹性,特别当金融危机向经济危机演化时,股票市场更可谓“满地黄金”。

  其次,高收益债券可带来稳定的现金流。按巴菲特不断增持的比重预计,固定收益类产品每年可为伯克希尔带来35亿-40亿美元低风险股息和利息收入。
拒绝生意远多于成交

  此外,固定收益类产品的最大风险是发债公司的破产。近期10年期美国政府债券的年收益率一度跌到2.8%,在过去10年,10年期美国政府债券的平均收益率都在4.65%。

  投资者在极度寻求安全的情况下,一方面是美国政府债券的收益率不断收窄,另一方面是公司债券收益率的飙升。巴菲特恰在此时逆势而动,开始大笔买入高收益率的公司债券。

  公司债券的另一个风险是通胀和利率上升。但经过金融风暴,世界经济在相当长的一段时间内都将面临通缩和低利率(甚或零利率)。

  其实,巴菲特并非没有考虑到投资安全问题,贝尔斯登、雷曼兄弟、AIG等此前都曾找过巴菲特,但都遭到了拒绝,巴菲特拒绝的生意远多于成交的生意。从去年开始,巴菲特陆续投资的无论是高盛和通用电气,抑或是公司债券的公司都没有发生任何破产危机的传闻。

  这并非幸运,凭借巴菲特丰富的投资和财务经验,要辨别一个可能破产的公司,比寻找一个盈利增长确定的公司容易得多。

  质疑巴菲特的人显然过虑了。手中依旧持有大量现金的巴菲特,未来更像一个“陷入美女群中的花花公子”,在股票市场上可以放纵而为,因为可以享受更大的“折扣优惠”。

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