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哈哈，这是一个好建议，顺便去美国走一遭也不错！ 今天晚上费了些时间在网上搜索一下巴郡股东大会的记录，现贴出我认为最佳的记录如下，另提供他的电子版记录尾部：
Berkshire Hathaway 2009 Annual Meeting Notes: Wells Fargo, Moody’s, US Bancorp, Washington Post, Bank of America, GE and Goldman Sachs May. 16, 2009 Moderators: Carol Loomis, Becky Quick, and Andrew Ross Sorkin Question 1: (Loomis) If derivatives are weapons of mass destruction (as Buffett has indicated on many occasions) are they appropriate for a highly rated insurance company? Buffett: Believe in the long run they will make money on these positions. Have very minimal collateral posting requirements. This is why they were willing to write these contracts. As of March 31 st, 2009 the collateral requirements were less than 1%. However, derivatives do pose problems for the world on a macro basis. Will only use them if they believe they are mispriced. Believe it is his duty to explain to shareholders the rationale for these transactions/contracts. Unfortunately, as a result of market to market accounting, the value of these derivatives can swing by billions of dollars on a quarterly basis Odds are very good that the equity puts will end up making money. However, he believes they will likely lose money on some of the CDS contracts. Those most at risk of loss are CDS on high yield companies. There are far more Chapter 11’s happening now (and will in the future) than previously. Will continue to hold and explain theses contracts. Have no material impact on BRK as a whole. Believe their balance sheet strength makes BRK an ideal company to hold these types of contracts Munger: There is a limit to how many of these contracts a company can have and BRK is well under that limit Question 2: (Audience) How can we teach the world to be more financially literate? Buffett: A world dependent on credit cards and calculators is hard to teach financial literacy. People will continue to do very foolish things. When he first went to Las Vegas he saw a country full of people who will fly from all over just to do something that is mathematically stupid. Thought that this meant the US was a great country to make money in Question 3: (Quick) Can you comment on Wells Fargo (WFC) and their current position with the government? Apparently they did not want to take TARP. Are these government programs and interventions good or bad? Munger: The government is reacting to the biggest financial crisis in memory in a very hurried fashion. Unreasonable to expect perfection. They are entitled to be judged leniently. Agreed that some of the reactions appeared to be foolish. Stated that the accounting principle that causes earnings to increase as your credit is destroyed (by being able to adjust the value of your debt) is insane. Thought that the people who made these rules need to be removed Buffett: Government was facing a total meltdown in September. Frozen commercial paper market and huge outflows from money market funds. When you are getting punched from all sides it is hard to be perfect. He commended the actions of the government. Nature of the emergency requires people to accept government actions Believes that WFC is a fabulous bank. Has advantages that other banks do not have. Suggested we all read the piece of the JP Morgan (JPM) annual letter written by Jamie Dimon Quesiton 4: (Audience) Do Buffett and Munger employ the use of complex free cash flow calculations with terminal multiples to determine discounted cash flow and ultimate valuation? Does this process fall in the too hard bin? Do they just use simple cash flow calculations? Buffett: All investing is laying out cash to see how much you can get back. If you need a computer or calculator to understand a company then you don’t need to buy shares. It should be so cheap that it screams at you Munger: Some of the worst financial decisions ever made were made based on fancy spreadsheets. People started to believe too much in their projections. Business schools teach this so that they have something to do. The implication is that business schools are not teaching the right things Buffett: People relied too much on the false precision based on the projection of probabilities of X standard deviation events. People with high IQs are more prone to fall into this trap. There are certain events whose probability cannot be calculated. It is a mistake to think that higher math will take you anywhere in investing. More likely to take you down the wrong path Question 5: (Sorkin) When it comes to Moody’s (MCO), why do they currently retain such a large holding? Why didn’t BRK use its large stake to influence the business model? Buffett: The conflict of interest (in terms of who paid for ratings) was not the main cause of misunderstanding the CDOs, CMBS, RMBS, etc. The belief that house prices could not fall was the wrong model to rely on. Congress, bankers and home buyers were all guilty. People levered up their biggest asset. Congress would have likely scolded the rating agencies for not rating these securities higher. They would have been seen as limiting home ownership (would have been labeled Un-American) and suppressing financial innovation Rating agencies were in a no win situation. BRK is not in the habit of telling the companies that they own what to do when it comes to their business model. They are not there to try to change companies and people. They have had very little luck changing behavior in their history Believe that MCO is still a good business even though it is subject to attack. There are not many competitors. Doesn’t require large amounts of capital. Won’t do the previous volume but the truth is the capital markets will continue to grow He and Charlie personally do not believe in using ratings. They never outsource investment decisions. Disagreements about credit worthiness have made BRK tons of money over the years Munger: Rating agencies are an example people being too smart for their own good Buffett: At BRK they never use the excuse that everyone is doing something so they should as well. But it is very hard to stop certain practices when the industry starts to accept them as desirable. At Solomon they had enough trouble stopping them from doing business with criminals Question 6: (Audience) What is your view on US real estate? What do you foresee for California? Buffett: In the last few months we have seen a pick up in real estate activity in the housing market. These transactions are at lower prices. There are more bidders but we have not yet seen a bounce back in prices. Foreclosure moratorium caused temporary dislocations. Thinks we are seeing something like stability from data provided by their real estate subsidiary in low to mid priced houses in California. On average there are about 1.3M households created each year. In recessions this number comes down.2M housing starts in recent years has led to a large excess supply of houses. Now housing starts are trending at like 500K per year. The excess supply will be absorbed over the next 2-3 years. We are eating up like 700K-800K per year. Once the current excess supply is absorbed we can get back to 1.3M-1.4M households created per year Munger: With interest rates so low people should be buying houses if they have good credit Buffett: Situation is getting corrected. We are on the road to recovery Question 7: (Loomis) Regarding the 4 managers that are candidates for taking over for [Buffett as investment manager, how did they do in 2008? Buffett: Well, all 4 are still on the list. There are three candidates for CEO, these are all internal people and are different from the people under consideration to run BRK’s portfolio. Could bring in 1 investment manager in or more than 1. Could even bring in all 4. These are internal and outside candidates. They did not do better than matching the losses in the S&P last year. They did not cover themselves with glory. But they are tolerant of that given the circumstances in 2008 Munger: Most managers got creamed in 2008 Buffett: These 4 have been better than average over time. If you had asked him in January 2008 whether or not these people would do better than the S&P he would have thought they would for sure. Would have been wrong in retrospect. The board knows who the CEO would be if Buffett died There is an immediate need for a CEO. Portfolio decisions could be more drawn out. Portfolio can survive without an new investment manager coming in the next day Munger: Don’t want a manager who would jump to cash in tough circumstance. They can’t do that at BRK so they would actually look down on someone who did that in his/her portfolios Question 8: (Audience) What is you opinion of the likelihood of the US having nationalized health care? Is this necessarily a bad thing? Munger: Thinks that something like European system will come to the US and be supplemented by a private system. Compared it to the school system that has both public and private schools competing for students. Even though he is a Republican he is not horrified by the idea of nationalized health care. However, he wishes they would wait until the credit crisis was over before they decided to try to fix health care Question 9: (Quick) Why not bring in a new CEO now and let him/her learn from Warren and take some of the pressure off of him? Buffett: All of the candidates are currently running a major business and are making capital allocation decisions each day. It would be a waste of talent for the CEO to come in and sit at BRK while Warren reads the Wall Street Journal. These people know how to run businesses. They are all ready for the CEO job right now. Will have to develop relationships with potential sellers of businesses, BRK’s top managers and shareholders. It will take some time but it doesn’t make sense to start the process now. The big challenge will be understanding the different management styles of BRK’s managers. Some managers run with virtual independence and some need more input from Warren and Charlie. The new CEO will have to learn the individual personalities and management styles Munger: These people are qualified to be the CEO of a BRK subsidiary and it would be a waste of time for them to come sit in Omaha. Thinks that the decentralized CEO building model is better anyway Question 10: (Audience) How do you teach new value investors? Buffett: 49 different schools came to Omaha last year to meet with him. Believes that schools only need to teach two courses. How to value a business? How to think about markets?The market is there to serve you, not to instruct you. No other classes are needed, Especially those that teach about modern portfolio theory, efficient markets and beta Remind people to always stay in their circle of competence. Certain companies do not lend themselves to easy valuation. It is OK to put these in the too hard bin Accounting can be useful, but it is certainly limiting One of the most important required traits is emotional stability, a state of peace with your decisions Said that this could be innate and admitted that it is not easily learned. Not the toughest thing to learn but it is not easy If you have a 150 IQ then sell 30 points to someone else. You don’t need an IQ above 120 to be an investor. In fact a higher IQ could potentially be harmful Munger: There is so much that is false and foolish at business schools, in finance, in banking and in academia. If you limit the nonsense then you can eliminate the noise Buffett: The fact that business schools still teach the efficient market theory biases him against academia. Called it a nutty idea. Said that it is a problem that the people who teach it are so entrenched because science only evolves one funeral at a time. He can’t believe how nutty ideas endure and get perpetuated despite mountain of evidence that the ideas are wrong
Question 11: (Audience) How do you look at the market’s valuation of BRK’s shares?
Buffett: There are two components of BRK’s valuation: earnings and investments. Both of these should rise in value over time. Thinks that the investments are worth more than they are being carried for. Earnings power (excluding underwriting profit/loss) of businesses was not as good in 2008 (and most likely in 2009 as well). Most of the businesses will do well and some will do sensationally. Some obviously have problems If you add the 2 components of value then you conclude that BRK was undervalued at the end of 2008 versus the end of 2007. But that was true for a lot of stocks Munger: In 2008 the float business was tough. But over the long run they will have a negative float. Believes their casualty business is the best in the world. If there is a better utility business in the world he doesn’t know of it. Thinks that the quality of BRK’s businesses is going to matter over time. If you think it is easy to find such good businesses then you are crazy Buffett: In September 2008 people started acting differently. It was like a bell went off and many businesses got hurt as consumers and other businesses changed their behaviors. Despite this GEICO actually saw a huge uptick in interest. Competitive advantage is reaping rewards. Being the low cost producer is a huge advantage in this environment. Fundamentals are in place for greater growth in the future Question 12: (Loomis) Since it is tough to reinvest retained earnings at the same rates as before, does it make sense to consider a dividend policy now, especially since Buffett has readily criticized others for not paying dividends? Buffett: They are not going to start paying a dividend. Security values were depressed in 2008. Reinvested earnings did not match return on the stock dollar for dollar in 2008. But they have never underperformed over a 5 year period. Implied that 2008 was an understandably aberrational year. If these results continued then there would be a case to be made that they had not reached their return goals. Identified WFC as a company that will be better off in 2 years a result of the credit crisis as competitors have pulled back or disappeared. Implied that BRK may be in the same position based on the ability to buy assets at attractive prices. You never want to be in the position in which someone can force you to sell your business. You can’t rely on daily quotes or returns to help you decide on an investment Question 13: (Audience) Would we better off investing in hard assets as the US and world take on so much debt, a fact that could lead to inflation? Munger: YES!!! Buffett: In the 1980s a lot of wonderful things were done to help build this country through infrastructure development. This should be the model now as well. However big organizations (both governments and companies) are prone to be slow and wasteful. The intent should be to get money into action quickly and intelligently. On the day after Pearl Harbor if they had added earmarks to the declaration of war it would have been a disaster. He is often very distressed by all the earmarks attached to bills. We are doing things on a scale that will have consequences in the future. There is no free ride. Implied that inflation was a real possibility. One no brainer that we should be spending on is an improved electricity grid. This has nothing to do with the fact that they own an electricity subsidiary Question 14: (Quick) Despite the strong balance sheet, is BRK at a cost of capital disadvantage based on not having the government guarantees that more troubled institutions have enjoyed? Buffett: BRK is at a huge disadvantage. Its raw material cost is higher than that of the troubled banks. Have to find other sources of funding. Especially for Clayton Homes. They can’t become a bank holding company. Only use borrowed money in the utility business. Borrowings are well under the other utilities Have $58B of float that they can use but right now they can’t go head to head with a government subsidized business Munger: Have a disadvantage but they would rather be in their position than that of the more distressed companies Question 15: (Audience) What would Graham have said about derivatives? Buffett: He would not have liked them. They cause leverage to go wild, lead to counterparty risk, make unexpected problems emerge, and can lead to financial devastation Having said that, if Graham had seen mispricings he might have bought them in moderation. Would not have done it in a way that another person’s (counterparty’s) problem could affect him. Believe that derivatives are used as a way around regulations on leverage. As settlement dates get stretched out (as they are on CDS) there is more likely to be a default. There is a reason why security markets have 3 day settlement periods Munger: Derivative dealers are playing games with its clients because they are privy to some of their clients positions. Leads to an unfair advantage. This is a dirty business. We need less of this in the US Question 16: (Sorkin) Why have we seen no concessions on preferred shares and debt from banks like we have seen from GM and Chrysler? US Bancorp (USB) and WFC are making lots of money. There is not reason to go to the senior holders as ask them to make concessions when there is a ton of equity below them. No reason for senior debt to give up anything. Companies with strong earnings power are very different from the car manufacturers. Chrysler obviously does not fit in the strong earnings category Question 17: (Audience) If BRK had a smaller asset base and was more nimble, how would they act differently with all of the volatility? Buffett: They own stocks they like regardless of what the price has done. Cost basis has nothing to do with how you should run the fund/portfolio. You still look at intrinsic value not the selling price Question 18: (Loomis) If it is true that Charlie and Warren are BRK’s competitive advantage and are now running a business that is tough to understand, why should someone buy BRK for the long run? Buffett: BRK has a sustainable advantage that is not Warren and Charlie. They have a cultural advantage based on the business model. They have a different shareholder base than other companies and that is a huge advantage. They have a model that allows businesses that they buy to keep running their businesses without a lot of input from BRK. It is very tough to copy BRK. But this is not just about Warren and Charlie. People will always want to join up with BRK (as a result of the culture) no matter who is in charge Munger: Many subsidiaries of companies are run terribly by the centralized headquarters of corporate America. This will remain ample enough to give BRK an advantage in the future Question 19: (Audience) How do you justify buying and holding when the fundamentals of a company change? Buffett: You sell when you lose faith in the management or they make a mistake from the beginning. Sell when the competitive advantage disappears. They buy a business for keeps. This is unless they promise to lose money indefinitely or have prolonged labor issues When in doubt buy and hold. If you find something much more attractive then you can sell. BRK does sell stocks periodically. They ask the CEOs the interview what they would do differently if they owned 100% of the company?They often hear a lot of things people would do. There are no examples at BRK. They run it as if they own 100% Question 20: (Quick) Since BRK does not buy back shares, would it make sense for an investor to sell his/her BRK shares and just buy what Buffett is buying? Buffett: First off, an investor can’t buy the free float, which is BRK’s advantage. They also can’t buy the businesses they own or make private investments Munger: It is not a bad idea to do what the question suggests Question 21: (Audience) How will inflation affect younger generations? What is BRK doing to protect against it? Buffett: :Inflation will affect younger generations. Even a couple points of inflation can lead to a slippery slope. Policies stimulating the business world will lead to inflation and the government will have the incentive to inflate our debt so we pay it off with less powerful dollars. In essence, the Chinese by funding our debt are paying AIG’s bonuses. Our taxes have not been raised yet. Fixed dollar investments will be hurt the most. Best protection versus inflation is your own earnings power. 2 nd best protection: a wonderful business. A business that people will patronize regardless. A business that does not include high capital investment costs Question 22: (Sorkin) Since the newspaper/publishing business is struggling what should BRK do with The Washington Post (WPO) shares? Are there better opportunities out there? Would they buy another newspaper? Buffett: Current environment has accentuated the problem with newspapers (erosion has been accelerated). Would not buy most newspapers at ANY price. Used to be the ultimate business, now they face unending losses. Essential nature is gone. No pricing power. Not essential for advertisers. There is nothing on the horizon that changes that Could have sold the Buffalo News years ago but refused to do it. It is worth less now. As long as they don’t see unending losses then they will keep it WPO has no answers for the slump in the newspaper business. Do have good education and cable businesses though Munger: The decline in newspapers has been a national tragedy. Has been an important part of our history. Used to keep the government and companies more honest. Whatever replaces newspapers will not be as good Question 23: (Audience) Will consumer spending changes be permanent and impact the discretionary businesses at BRK for years? Buffett: When it comes to housing, in a few years you could see an equilibrium based on a return to normalized housing starts. This will eventually help the BRK businesses that are tied to housing. When it comes to retail, the high end has been the hardest hit. Thinks this will last a while. People will save more. The experience of the last 2 years will last a long time. Retail real estate industry. Tough period to be in for a long time. Shopping center business will not be the same. Centers bought with 5% capital rates will look silly In the service industry, these companies require less capital and are better businesses. Don’t expect a quick rebound Question 24: (Loomis) Since BRK has endorsed share buybacks for other companies but refuses to buy back BRK shares, should BRK shares be discounted because of that? Buffett: Has not written about stock buybacks in years. Sees recent purchases as foolish. Companies spent too much. In the 1970s and 1980s this was attractive for other companies. In 2000 they thought BRK’s shares were too low and they said so. It was self defeating because the stock went up and then they could not buy any shares. Would say so again if they thought shares were that compelling Question 25: (Audience) : Based on the macro economic picture, how has opportunity cost decision making changed? Buffett: These decisions are much more in front of mind recently. When intrinsic value is changing fast then opportunity cost calculations are more challenging but also can be more rewarding. Saw this is September and October 2008. Needed a lot of cash around and had to sell Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) shares to get in on really attractive deals. Would do this again but it is hard to sell in huge quantities in falling markets | 
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发表于 2009-7-2 17:22:05
发表于 2009-7-4 22:56:29
