谈谈威孚

bill69

08年年报出，0.34元，又一次低于市场预估，看完却觉得有几个问题。1,长期投资收益归属000581的达到每股0.64元，其中博世的贡献超过0.46元，进步硬是要得！2,销售费用较07年增加2100万，管理费用增加8300万，减值增加6500万，三项费用生生让所有的努力全部报废。3,威孚力达销售继续高速增长，利润贡献却恰恰相反！4,博世汽柴的净利润率由07的10％增加到08年的15％，国产化效果明显，考虑到利润其实是由70％的重卡共轨贡献，实际净利润率达到22％？！呵呵，感觉去年的今天，威孚其实还是想完成股改承诺的，而今年的今天倒有股破罐子破摔的味道，葫芦里卖的什么药，天知，地知，他知，我不知。。。

mantasy

看来投资者选择了用屁股投票，B股静态PE16倍，PB1倍。先等一季报出来再说。

冰雪婉儿

中信建投给出了08年业绩1元的预测，卖方研究员开始试图穿越迷雾了，呵呵。

petter9988

有句谚语:牛赚、熊赚，猪不赚。
因为猪没有原则，也就更谈不上纪律。
股市的魅力在于没有完美，没有完美的投资者、没有完美的策略、更没有完美的上市公司。因为没有完美，投资者往往在不同策略之间游移，更容易在公司处境糟糕的时候放大缺点，处境顺畅的时候放大优点。商业景气的循环往往与人性的嬗变类似。
如果不考虑大盘，今天是威孚基本面的最后一个买点。我相信今后有N多研究员与报告做伴，威孚的投资者很难再会寂寞。

bill69

有关威孚力达的表述有误，应该是俺搞错了。呵呵

古道荒城

Petter老师，

“如果不考虑大盘，今天是威孚基本面的最后一个买点。”

能否解释一下为什么这么说，谢谢。

枫宁

年报后“迷雾”将渐消融，越来越多的人会看到她的美、想起她的好；而这美丽的光环也将被人们捧的越来越“眩”，直到另一个尽头的“迷雾”重新出现。。。。。。

szjacob

引用：

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原文由 古道荒城 发表于 2007-4-18 13:58:07 :

Petter老师，

“如果不考虑大盘，今天是威孚基本面的最后一个买点。”

能否解释一下为什么这么说，谢谢。

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我猜想，从技术分析上看，是大涨前的最低点，如果不考虑大盘的话。不知道对不对。 ［此帖子已被 szjacob 在 2007-4-18 22:40:46 编辑过］

petter9988

呵呵．有时候随便写几句，各位没必要认真探究．

其实，威孚４月１９日的年报和季报都是财务数据的低点，以后再无利空，未来最迟３季报就会开始不停地预增以显示强劲的增长，届时它会是一个彻底的绩优股．机构们正是认识到这一点，才开始＂打提前量＂介入．

威孚是一个很好的观察景气循环、人性嬗变（尤其是机构）的案例，解剖了这只麻雀，会帮助我们看清很多东西。

快乐无罪

一位朋友刚刚转过来的资料（高盛刚刚出炉的评级，建议为卖出），转给大家参考一下。

Weak 06 and 1Q07 results; unexciting 07 prospect; re-iterate Sell
What's changed
Weifu reported revenue of Rmb2.5bn in 2006, down 11% yoy. In the year, it
shared a big loss of Rmb75.7mn (2005: loss of Rmb35.1mn) from its 31.5%
owned BADS, and its earnings shared from its 10% owned UAES also
mildly declined. These all resulted in Weifu’s earnings of Rmb88mn in
2006, down 51% yoy. Weifu also reported its 1Q07 result, with revenue up
25% yoy to Rmb804mn, but earnings down 16% yoy to Rmb47mn. 2006
EPS was Rmb0.16 versus our estimate of Rmb0.25.
Implications
1. Weifu’s poor result in ‘06 was mainly due to shrinking sales of its core P
pump, particularly the high end P pump, which faced fierce competition
from low end rivals. 2) We expect Weifu to revert back to earnings growth
starting ‘07 as BADS should turn around with the warm-up of the Euro III
diesel injection system market. 3) The weak 1Q07 result indicates Weifu’s
‘07 earnings are likely to be below investors’ expectation. 4) We revise
down our 2007E earnings forecast by 6.4% in view of rising competition
and raw material price hike. 6) We roll over our valuation to ‘08E earnings
and raise our 12-m TP from Rmb5.40 to Rmb9.90 (16.5X ‘08E EPS). 6) Our
new TP implies 35% potential downside & we reiterate our Sell rating.
Valuation
We think Weifu should resume earnings growth starting ‘07 after three
consecutive earnings-declining years over ‘04-‘06, along with the expected
earnings turnaround of BADS. We still value the stock at parity multiple to
the market, using the MSCI China Composites ex-oils & telecoms as proxy.
Key risks
Demand for Euro III diesel injection system might be stronger than we
expected due to 1) stricter implementation Euro III emission policy
nationwide since ‘07 & 2) faster than expected car dieselization in China.
This could cause faster & sharper turnaround in earnings of BADS which
should be Weifu’s major earnings driver going forward.
INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
Asia Pacific Sell List
Coverage view: Neutral

2006 op profit down 31% yoy; 1Q07 earnings down 16% yoy
Weifu reported revenue of Rmb2.5bn in 2006, down 11% yoy, mainly because of a 23%
sales decrease of its core P series pump sales (see Exhibit 1). However, Weifu improved its
gross margin to 24.8% in 2006 from 22.2% in 2005, mainly benefiting from raw materials ?
steel and aluminum prices decline. Weifu shared a big loss of Rmb75.7mn (2005: loss of
Rmb35.1mn) from its 31.5%-owned Bosch Auto Diesel System (“BADS”) which reported a
total loss of Rmb240mn (2005: loss of Rmb110mn). And, there was also moderate decline
in earnings shared from its 10% owned United Auto Electronic System (“UAES”). These all
resulted in Weifu’s earnings of Rmb88mn in 2006, down 51% yoy.
In 2006, Weifu sold around 238,000 P pumps, down only 1%. However, its high end PS7100
pump experienced 40% shrink in sales volume given intensified competition from low end
competitors. Its another core product ? VE pump also experienced 6% decline in sales
volume. However, the overall demand in the downstream industries ? heavy and light
diesel engines industry - experienced solid growth in 2006. We believe the sales decline is
a clear indication that Weifu’s products are losing their ground in the fiercely competitive
market though the company continues to lead China’s diesel injection system market.

Weifu also reported 1Q 2007 revenue of Rmb804mn, up 25% yoy (see Exhibit 1). We
believe this is largely because of China’s extraordinary booming heavy truck sales in 1Q
2007, driving demand for Weifu’s P pumps. But, its moderate gross margin erosion and
outgrowth in SG&A ultimately resulted in a weaker than expected earnings of Rmb47mn,
down 16% yoy. By end Mar07, Weifu had net bank borrowing (ex cash) of Rmb836mn on
balance and its net gearing rose to 34%, up 4 pp from end?Dec06 or 10 pp from end-Mar06.
April 19, 2007 Weifu Hi-technology (000581.SZ)
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research 4
Earnings to revert back to growth in 2007, but not too exciting
We expect Weifu to resume earnings growth in 2007 after three consecutive earningsdeclining
years over 2004-2006. This would be mainly attributable to the expected earnings
turnaround of its 31.5% owned BADS, which is becoming Weifu’s major earnings driver
going forward. We estimate BADS would merely achieve breakeven in 2007 along with the
warming up of China’s Euro III diesel injection system market which it focuses. Further, we
expect Weifu’s other major earnings contributor ? UAES ? to grow earnings at most by
25% in 2007 given product price erosion. Weifu’s own products sales, particularly P pump,
should continue to face fierce attack from rivals.
China’s heavy truck sales reached 105,374 units YTD as of end Mar07, up 60% yoy. This
growth rate was well ahead of our forecast of 25% for 2007. We believe this stronger than
expected market was mainly a result of 1) the downstream road cargo transport market
continuing to recover given the strong national economy, 2) stricter measures, being
implemented nationwide, on truck overloading spurring heavy truck demand. We do not
expect this extraordinary growth to be sustainable throughout the rest of 2007. As such,
we expect Weifu’s core P pumps sales growth would also moderate from 2Q onwards.
Valuation: TP raised to Rmb9.90; Sell rating remains
Although we expect Weifu to revert back to earnings growth starting 2007, we believe the
company is hard to deliver earnings to the high expectations of most investors. In fact, the
company has failed to meet analysts’ expectation every year over the past five years. The
rising competition from low end competitors is eroding Weifu’s profitability on its own
products and rising raw materials cost would hurt its margin in 2007. In addition, the
government’s adoption of Euro III emission policy since 2H 2007 remains uncertain. As
such, we have cut our earnings forecast by 6.4% to Rmb0.39 EPS for 2007 but largely
maintained our forecast of Rmb0.60 EPS for 2008.
We continue to value the stock at parity multiple to the market (using the MSCI China
Composite excluding oils and telecoms as proxy) which trades at 20.6X 2007E earnings or
16.5X 2008E. We believe Weifu deserves this valuation given its fast earnings recovery
expected starting 2007. We have rolled over our valuation from 2007 earnings to 2008
earnings, and thus raised our target price from Rmb5.40 to Rmb9.90, or 16.5X 2008E EPS.
Our new target price offers 35% potential downside. We think the stock appears clearly
overvalued compared to its peers in the China auto and parts sector under our coverage.
We reiterate Sell rating on the stock.