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http://www.time.com/time/printout/0,8816,1841374,00.html
Tuesday, Sep. 16, 2008
The Chevy Volt: GM's Huge Bet on the Electric Car
By Bryan Walsh
I can see the future of the automobile ? I just can't quitehear it. I'm riding around General Motors' secure proving grounds in Milford, Mich.,inwhat from the outside looks like an ordinary Chevrolet Malibu. Butinside itcouldn't be more different. The test car isn't powered by agasoline-fueledinternal combustion engine, like nearly every automobilesince the first ModelT rolled off Henry Ford's assembly line in 1908. Nor is it a hybrid like Toyota's fuel-efficientPrius with a gas engine assisted by an electric motor. This Malibuis electric, powered by a 400-lb.lithium-ion battery nestled beneaththe floorboard ? an energy source that isnot only silent but entirelyemission-free.
Actually,what we're driving is not a Malibu at all but a"mule," a stunt doublefor what will become the Chevrolet Volt, a newplug-in electric car thatcould save a struggling GM and, not incidentally,change the way wedrive ? just as long as they can make it work in time."Developing thiscar is not something for the lighthearted," saysAlex Cattelan, theVolt's assistant chief vehicle engineer, from behind the wheel."Butit's so much fun."
Tounderstand why the Volt could be so important to two oncedominantinstitutions that have hit hard times ? General Motors and theUnited States ?all you need to do is visit your nearest gas station,where a gallon of unleaded now costs an average of $3.64. We're spendingaround $700 billion a year to import oil, with much of that money beingshipped to countries that don't likeus very much. When we burn all thatimported oil, we release nearly 2 milliontons of carbon dioxide intothe atmosphere each year, heating up the planet.Those twin trends can'tcontinue, and the solution "is to move away from oil as quickly and asdevastatingly as possible," according to former CIAdirector turnedgreen warrior James Woolsey.
GMis hardly the only major automaker to explore electrics as the waytomake that happen; in recent months every major internationalautomaker hasannounced plans to produce plug-in hybrids, semi-electriccars that can berecharged from a wall socket, like the Volt. But it isGM ? which has seenrevenues vanish as Americans stampede away from SUVsand other gas gluttons ?that is pursuing the most ambitious program.The company does not have a happyhistory with electrics, havingproduced the battery-powered EV1 inthe 1990s only to discontinue it in1999. But this time GM has stakedits future on the Volt, promising to have itin showrooms by the end of2010 ? far quicker than the pace of development fora standard car, letalone one whose battery does not technically exist yet."This is not achoice," says Rebecca Lindland, an auto analyst forthe research firmGlobal Insight. "This is necessary for theirsurvival." And in a warming world, perhaps ours too.
Underthe hood, Bob Lutz is not your typical green. The former Marinepilot ?who owns a pair of surplus military jets he likes to fly ? probablyhasa carbon footprint half the size of Michigan.Butit is the gravelly Lutz, GM's vice chairman for global productdevelopment,who is the driving force behind the Volt. Lutz worked inthe auto industry fordecades, left to run the battery company ExideTechnologies and returned to GMin 2001 full of ideas. His dream was todevelop an all-electric car that wouldbe powered by lithium-ionbatteries similar to the kind now used in cell phonesand laptops. Mostcurrent hybrids use nickel-metal-hydride batteries ? lessexpensive, butalso less powerful. In 2003 a Silicon Valleystart-upnamed Tesla Motors announced it would produce a $100,000lithium-ion-poweredsports car, and that helped galvanize Lutz. "If someguy in California can do it, tome it shows that this is certifiable technology," he says.
GMas a whole shared that confidence and at the 2007 Detroit AutoShowunveiled an early concept-car version of the Volt. To the surpriseof evenLutz, it was the hit of the show. Other hybrids may offer fuelefficiency, butthe Volt would go several steps further. A traditionalhybrid like the Priushas two means of propulsion: one electric motorrun by a battery and one enginerun by gasoline. The battery can't takeyou very far ? maybe 7 or 8 miles ?which is why the gas engine kicks inso often. But as you drive, the batterydoes pick up extra juice, mostlycourtesy of what's known as regenerativebraking ? collecting the heatgenerated every time you hit the brakes,converting it to electricityand storing it in the battery. The result: lessgas used on every trip.
TheVolt will rely on its electric motor, powered by its new battery,andwill go up to 40 miles without using a drop of gas. For the nearly80% ofAmericans who drive less than 40 miles a day, that would meanthey couldeffectively eliminate gasoline from their lives. After 40miles, the Volt's gasengine switches on, but unlike the Prius', itdoesn't make the car move aninch. Rather, it generates electricity andfeeds it to the battery, much theway an emergency generator in ahospital keeps the lights on during a blackout.This allows you to go anadditional several hundred miles before you needeither a fill-up or acharge-up. "With [past electrics] people had tochange the way theylived," says Andrew Farah, the Volt's chief engineer."I want a vehiclethat doesn't ask them to change at all."
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GMalways knew that the hardest part of building the Volt wouldbeharnessing the still young lithium-ion technology to create the rightbatteryfor the job. In a normal development process, GM would work withbatterymakersto design and test the power packs, then begin making thecar itself. But thesearen't normal times at GM, a company that lost$15.5 billion in the secondquarter of 2008 alone; that surrendered theaura of technological leadership toToyota;thatfinds itself squeezed between tightening fuel-economy standards anda fleetthat is still shifting from trucks and SUVs. So the order wentout to designthe batteries and the car simultaneously, with the aim ofputting Volts forsale in the "tens of thousands," according to Lutz, bythe end of2010.
OnSept. 16, 2008, GM's 100th birthday, the company further committedtoits self-imposed deadline by unveiling the final production design ofthe Volt:a sleek and aerodynamic body that still looks more like afamily sedan than acar of the future. Now it will be up to the team inthe company's advancedbattery lab to make good on the 2010 pledge.
Thatunit, led by engineer Denise Gray, is currently puttingvariouslithium-ion modules through their paces, cycling them throughcharges andtesting them in warm and cold conditions, with the aim ofensuring the packscan run safely for at least 150,000 miles of driving.The technology has hadits problems in other applications ? recall thelithium-ion batteries thatcaught on fire in Sony laptops in 2006. Butso far, GM says, theirs areperforming well, an assessment confirmed byoutside analysts. The test packsI'm shown have gone through theequivalent of about 22,000 miles of driving,and the peppy Gray ? whoseems to be lithium-ion-powered herself ? says they'restill goingstrong.
Evenif the technology is ready by the end of 2010, critics doubtthatmanufacturers will be able to produce the batteries at scale bythen ? orcheaply enough to make the Volt remotely affordable. (Lutzsays he's"shooting for $40,000 or less," which would still be a stiffpremiumfor what is, high tech aside, a family car.) Menahem Anderman,the founder ofTotal Battery Consulting, believes that it should take GMfour to five years todevelop and test new lithium-ion packs. "I'd liketo be wrong," hesays. "But it's difficult to see how they can succeed."
Toyota, GM's bête noire, seems to agree. Six months after GMunveiled the Volt concept in 2007, Toyotaannouncedit was already test-driving plug-in hybrids ? cars that adhere tothetwo-engine model of all hybrids but allow the battery to plug intothe grid andpick up an extra charge while parked. Toyotahasbeen as quiet about its plug-in plans as GM has been loud about theVolt,but it does seem that the Japanese company takes a more skepticalview oflithium technology. "Our thinking is of a smaller battery with alowerinitial cost [for the consumer]," says Tasatami Takimoto, Toyota's executive vice president for greentech.
Nomatter when the Volt hits the showrooms, it seems unlikely to appearinlarge numbers right away. In a July filing with the National HighwayTrafficSafety Administration, GM said the Volt and other plug-ins wouldbe"low-volume applications" until 2015 and that the governmentshouldn'ttake the technology into account when devising new fuel-economyrules.To Lutz, any initial success of the Volt matters less than GM'sabilityto improve and adapt the car's system across its entire fleet."This isgeneration-one technology, and it's been developed very fast,"he says."Generation two is already in the hopper, and generation threeis beingworked on."
GM? and the rest of the auto industry ? can't go through thosegenerationsfast enough. More than hydrogen fuel cells (perpetually 10 to 15yearsoff) and cellulosic ethanol (ditto), electric cars represent apromisingnear-term solution to America'soiladdiction. The infrastructure to support electric cars exists today ?it'scalled the electric grid, and we can all tap into it in our homes.Electricityis far cheaper than the cheapest oil ? plug-ins generallyrun on the equivalentof 75 cents a gallon. Even with America'scurrentelectrical supply, which is more than 50% coal-generated, switchingtoplug-ins will reduce greenhouse gases, and as the grid gets cleanerandcleaner, those savings will only increase. A joint study by theElectric PowerResearch Institute and the Natural Resources DefenseCouncil estimated that by2050, widespread adoption of plug-ins couldreduce greenhouse-gas emissions by450 million metric tons annually ?equivalent to removing 82.5 millionpassenger cars from the road.
Norwould plug-ins overwhelm the electrical grid. Because utilities needtokeep excess capacity available to meet rare peak-power events ? a bitlike ahotel holding 20 extra empty rooms for a convention that happensonce a year ?there's plenty of electricity to power plug-ins, providedthey charge atoff-peak times. A study by the Pacific National NorthwestLaboratory found thatthe grid could power 73% of the nation's car fleetwithout adding a single newplant, provided most of the charging wasdone at night.
TheVolt may not be the only way to kick the oil habit, but thesheerexcitement the unfinished car has generated ? more than 30,000people havejoined an unofficial waiting list ? indicates that GM hastaken the lead in therace for tomorrow's car. The real question may bewhether the company, stillbleeding revenue in a depressed market, cansurvive until the Volt arrives.Lutz has no doubt. "This is the lastprogram we would ever cut," heinsists. "Even as we face the GrimReaper, we would still be spendingmoney on the Volt." Let's hope so.When it comes to the Volt, what's goodfor General Motors could onceagain be good for America.
? With reporting by Coco Masters, Yuki Oda and Michiko Toyama / Tokyo
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