华尔街日报
Ex-Chief Says Intel Should Power Cars
By REBECCASMITH and DONCLARK
12-12-2008
Former IntelCorp.chairman Andrew Grove is pushing the world's biggest makerofmicroprocessors to consider a new venture -- becoming a manufacturerofadvanced batteries for plug-in electric cars.
Mr.Grove, who retired in 2005 but still advises Intel, is urgingthecurrent chief executive, Paul Otellini, to steer the company intobatteryproduction as a way to diversify business as well as fill astrategic niche asauto makers shift to production of plug-in electricvehicles.
Ifthe auto industry moves ahead with that strategy, it couldrequirehundreds of thousands of batteries, but little manufacturingcapacity exists inthe U.S.Some experts caution that Chinese and Japanese companies, such as BYD Motors, PanasonicCorp. and SanyoElectricCo. Ltd., are positioning themselves to dominate the emergingindustryas they already have expertise making lithium ion batteries. Unless U.S.firms getinvolved soon, Mr. Grove says, the nation may achieve aPyrrhic victory,breaking an addiction to imported oil through the useof electric cars butreplacing it with dependence on another importeditem, batteries.
It'sunclear whether Intel executives intend to follow Mr. Grove'sadvice.Mr. Otellini declined to comment, but a spokesman said thatIntel already hasinvestments in battery-related companies through itsIntel Capital unit."We consider battery technology important and welook at a lot of things.But whether we will do anything more, we can'tsay at this time," thespokesman said.
However,Mr. Grove, 72, who was Intel's CEO from 1987 to 1998, and lateritschairman, still commands a bully pulpit as one of the nation'sleadingtechnologists. He has been a force for change at the companybefore, leadingits painful exit in the late 1980s from most popularmemory chips because ofstiff competition from Japanese electronicscompanies. He drove the company toput its focus on microprocessors, theelectronic brains of computers, astrategic shift that turned Intel intoone of the most profitable bigmanufacturing companies in the world.
ButIntel has struggled to create another major business, failing tomakemuch headway after costly attempts to make chips for communicationsdevices andcellphones. Mr. Otellini has lately tried to mount anotherdiversificationdrive beyond its current computing markets, aimedprimarily at chips forpocket-size Internet devices, a new class oflow-end laptops and forapplications such as consumer electronicsdevices and industrial equipment. Ithas also begun developing devicesaimed at improving the efficiency of healthcare.
Movinginto automotive batteries would be a much more radical shift thatcouldrequire different skills and put Intel in competition with companiesthathave plied the battery field for decades. Among other things, Intelwould haveto hire battery experts or collaborate with those at othercompanies, and putmoney into new factories.
Likeother companies affected by the downturn, Intel may be more inclinedtoconserve cash than to plow it into risky new endeavors. Intel lastmonthprojected that sales would decline 12% in the fourth quarter fromthe thirdperiod, after predicting in mid-October that revenue wouldrise 3%.
Mr.Grove says Intel's "strategic objective is tackling big problemsandturning them into big businesses" and he believes that thecompany'sdeep pockets?Intel reported more than $12 billion in cash andinvestments as ofSept. 30?gives it the ability to figure out ways toimprove batteries and drivedown costs and speed penetration.
He also has become something of an evangelist for dual-fuel vehicles,which he believes could help the U.S.slash greenhouse gas emissionsand cut its dependence on imported oil, aview shared by many, includingPresident-elect Barack Obama.
The current loans Congress is planning to extend to U.S. automakers are contingent, in part, on the industry accelerating its plans toretool to manufacture plug-in electric vehicles.
Manyexperts contend that battery production problems could limit growthofthe electric car industry. "Batteries are absolutely the No.1constraint for electric cars," says Mark Duvall, a researcher attheElectric Power Research Institute in Palo Alto, Calif., autility-funded research organization. "It's also the single-most expensivecomponent right now."
A number of small U.S.firms have entered the lithium-ion battery market with hopes of supplyingauto-makers. GeneralMotors Corp. has announced it is working with A123 Systems of Watertown., Mass.,on a battery thatcould appear in cars as soon as 2010, although GM isalso working with a Koreanfirm. Both Boston Power Co., Westborough,Mass., which is supplying batteriesfor Hewlett-Packard Co. laptops, andValence Technology Corp., Austin, Texas,which makes lithium-ionbatteries for the Segway scooter, plan automotivebatteries.
Lithiumion batteries are favored for automotive uses because they havethegreatest energy density. A lithium ion battery has approximately fourtimesthe power, per kilogram of weight, of a standard lead acidbattery, and doublethe power per kilogram of a nickel-metal hydridebattery used in today's ToyotaPrius cars.
Currently,lithium ion batteries cost about $1,000 per kilowatt hour ofcapacity,adding $4,000 to $16,000 to the cost of a plug-in car capable ofusingboth gasoline and electricity.
But production capacity, particularly in the U.S.,is constrained. Some makersof traditional lead acid batteries aremoving into advanced batteries.Battery-manufacturer Johnson ControlsInc., Milwaukee,is partnering with French-based Saft Groupe SA to build a lithium ion batteryplant in France.
"Ifelectric cars are to become a reality, we will need 10 times to100times the manufacturing capacity that laptops need," Mr. Grovesays,citing research prepared by students in an MBA class he teaches atStanford University.
Mr. Grove also believes that the principle of Moore's law could apply to batteries as well.Moore'slaw,named for Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, holds that the number oftransistorsthat can be placed inexpensively on a silicon wafer willdouble about every twoyears, driving computing advancements. The 1965principle was a reliablepredictor for decades. "We are the trustee for Moore's law," says Mr. Grove.
Write to Rebecca Smith at rebecca.smith@wsj.com and Don Clark at don.clark@wsj.com
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