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发表于 2010-2-18 11:06:59
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日产电动车 Leaf 日产官方数据：
容量：5位乘客
航程：100英里
价格：车25000美元+电池10000美元
电池容量: 24度
家用充电器：8小时充满
电池寿命：8-10年后还有70-80%容量
Here comes the electric Nissan Leaf
By Alex Taylor III, senior editorFebruary 17, 2010: 12:00 PM ET
(FortuneMagazine)--CarlosGhosn -- in shirtsleeves -- walks briskly into aconferenceroomon the21st floor of Nissan's global headquarters inYokohama,Japan.Awaitinghis arrival are 15 executives in two ranks ofchairs.Subject ofthemeeting: how to spread the news about Ghosn'spetelectric-carproject.
Hiscommunications staff wantsatraditional publicitycampaign to buildexcitement, but Ghosn(rhymeswith "phone") has otherideas. He believesthat Nissan has aheadstartover the rest of theindustry -- and hedoesn't want to tiphis hand.
"Ourcommunicationsabout theelectric car should notbe very convincing,"he says. "I don'twant towake up the competition.Every day they don'tdecide [to developelectricvehicles] is a good dayfor us."
Thecompetition wouldhave to beon another planet notto know aboutNissan's big bet onelectric vehicles(EVs). For onething, adocumentary crew filmed the21st-floor meeting,which was alsoattendedby a reporter from Fortune,so Ghosn's feintwasn't likely tofoolanybody very long.
Foranother, Nissan anditscorporatepartner, Renault, have hardly beenclose-mouthedabouttheirexpectations for EVs. Already public are theirproduct plans(fourEVmodels each from Nissan and Renault) and the sizeoftheirinvestment(more than $5 billion by 2016). For his part, Ghosnhasbeenanoutspoken EV booster and has frequently repeatedhispredictionthatEVs will account for 10% of the global auto marketby2020 --higherthan most forecasts from other automakers and analysts.
InDecember2010,inthe U.S. and Japan, Nissan is due to roll out theLeaf,afive-passengercompact car that is the first EV designed forthemassmarket. The Leaf ispowered by a 480-pound pack oflithium-ionbatteriesthat Nissan says willpropel the car 100 miles andcan berechargedovernight on householdcurrent.
Lots ofdetailsremained unclearat presstime, includingthe price of the car(figurearound $25,000) andthe batteries (another$10,000; a lease planislooking less likely).But that didn't stop Ghosnfrom stepping out ofabattery-poweredconcept car at the Tokyo Motor Showlast fallanddeclaring to hundredsof onlookers, "The race to zeroemissionshasbegun."
The wayGhosn sees it, every automakerwilleventuallyhave to invest in EVs,given the direction ofgovernmentregulation,oil prices, and consumerpreference. Underthosecircumstances, hefigures, why shouldn'tRenault-Nissan be first?"Thisis not a bet, butthe result of athorough analysis," he says. "Theonlyquestion aboutzero emissions is,When? Do we do it now or in fiveyears?Ourcompetitors may see itdifferently, but we at Renault-Nissanbelieveitis now."
He isright about one thing: Nissan'scompetitorsdosee it differently.Toyota (TM), General Motors, andHyundaiareputting more emphasis onplug-in hybrids, which don't havetherangelimitations of EVs; theyhave small gasoline engines inadditiontotheir electric motors. Sincethey carry morebatteriesthanconventional hybrids, they can travel upto 40 milesinall-electricmode.
Nissan has, in fact, been alaggard in theracetoalternative fuels. It introduced its firsthybrid, a versionoftheAltima, nearly a decade after Toyota came outwith the Prius.Thatisstill the only hybrid car it sells, comparedwith ahalf-dozenhybridcars and trucks offered by Toyota.
Somecompetitors,therefore,viewthe Leaf as a Hail Mary pass, with littlechance ofbeingcompleted. Thecar is a technological long shot, butGhosnbelievesthat Nissan has asecret advantage: its battery, the keytosuccess inEVs. The companybegan R&D work on lithium-ionbatteriesnearly twodecades ago anddeveloped the laminated cell, withitsimproved coolingand packagingability, in 2002. "Nissan has asuperiorbattery," saysHideaki Horie, itstop battery researcher. "Itscost,performance,weight, and package arebetter -- significantlybetter --than thecompetition's."
Powerful,energy-densebatteries areessentialfor alleviating the greatest obstacle(afterprice) to EVpopularity --range anxiety: the fear that thebatterieswill becomedischarged andleave drivers stranded.
Ghosnfiguresthat theLeaf's 100-milerange will make it practical for "95% ofthepeople onearth [who]drive less than 100 miles per day." Butdriverstend to getanxiousonce a battery reaches 50% depletion.
Andthat100-milerange isbased on a driving cycle, devised bytheEnvironmentalProtectionAgency, that consists of a pattern ofstartsand stops meanttoreplicate driving in Los Angeles, and thatproducesan average speedof19.6 miles an hour.
Push the Leafcloser toits top speed of90miles an hour up and down hills, with theairconditioner andradioblasting, and your mileage, as they say in theTVcommercials,willdiffer. Experts say a more typical blend of cityandhighwaydrivingmight yield a range closer to 70 to 75 miles.
Aswithanynewform of energy for automobiles, be it ethanol,naturalgas,orhydrogen, the difficult question is, Which comes first,thevehicleorthe infrastructure to support it? Nissan is workingtheproblemfromall sides. It has established partnerships with morethan40states,counties, municipalities, and utilities toapplyforgovernmentsubsidies and build public plug-in stations.
InJanuaryitdesignateda supplier of home charging stations that willenableownersto replenishtheir batteries in under eight hours with a220-voltplugsimilar to theone used for clothes dryers. Nissan hasalso teamedupwith Japanesetrading and financial giant Sumitomo Corp.to startabattery-recyclingbusiness.
The debate over EVs vs.hybridsseemsto have sparkedGhosn's competitive instinct. "A hybrid islikeamermaid," he says. "Ifyou want a fish, you get a woman; if youwantawoman, you get a fish." Hebelieves that only Nissan isfollowingthetrue path toward environmentalpurity. "If you haveanefficientbattery for a hybrid, why not go all theway and goforelectric cars?"he asks. "It has the most zero emissions ofanything."
AttimesGhosnsounds messianic. "Le Cost Killer," thenickname heearnedwhilerestructuring Nissan a decade ago, might bereplaced by"Carlos,theClimate-Change Crusader." "Our course is right,"he declaredatBillClinton's Global Initiative in New York City lastspring."Thisisn'tabout cars -- it is about saving the planet."
Building a better car battery
Severalyearsafteritstarted research on lithium-ion chemistry, Nissandevelopedacylindricalbattery that it installed in four small citycarsbetween1996 and 2001.Toyota and Honda (HMC) were usingoldernickelmetal-hydride batteries inhybrid cars like the Prius andtheInsight.Word of mouth on the Nissanbattery spread. Sci-fiwriterMichaelCrichton specified Nissan batteriesfor themaintenancevehicles hecreated for Jurassic Park.
WhenGhosnarrived atNissan to rescueit from near bankruptcy in 1999, hewassurprised tofind the batteryresearch program in place. It wouldhavebeen an easydecision to sellit as part of his restructuringoftheall-but-insolvent company, butinstead he left it intact. Itturnedoutto be a smart move. Researchershave made impressiveprogresssince.The change to a laminated batterygave Nissan a source ofpowerthathad superior energy density yet wasless expensive. Thosebatteriesarewhat power the Leaf.
In 2006,Ghosn introducedacompanywideprogram called Nissan Green 2010 to pushNissantowardsustainability.The Leaf project was approved a yearlater. "Thepush wasled by theboss," says North Americanproduct-planning chiefLarryDominique. "Wewere criticized for notdeveloping a hybridelectricvehicle. Mr. Ghosnfelt we should take thenext leap."
Laiddownat the outset wereconditions for the carthat to some mightseemcounterintuitive: Nissandid not want an EV thatcalled attentiontoitself. "It had to be areal car, not an upgradedgolf cart,"saysDominique. "It couldn't beodd-looking. And it had tobe affordable."
Fromthebeginning,the needs of the customer,not the corporation, gotpriority."From aproduct-planning standpoint,we were focused on theprice of thecar,not how much it cost to make,"he says. "Also, wefocused on thecostof ownership rather than theupfront cost."
OnMay 13,2008,Nissan announced azero-emissions program as part ofitsmidtermbusiness plan. Ghosnestablished an ambitious goal and setadeadline:He declared thatNissan would introduce an all-electricvehiclein theU.S. and Japan in2010, and market it globally by 2012.
TheLeafwasrevealed tothe public in August 2009 in conjunction withtheopening ofNissan'sYokohama headquarters. Its design is quirky, butasGhosndirected, itdoesn't immediately signal the presence ofnearly500 poundsofbatteries under its floor. "We made it stable,solid, andreliable--not a toylike city car," says head designer ShiroNakamura.
Onetip-offtoits identity is the absence of a grille;with no engine upfront,there isno need for a radiator or a grille toshield it. Sinceelectriccarsproduce no noticeable engine noise,containing thedecibels createdbyother sources becomes a designchallenge. TheLeaf's headlamps,forinstance, are more aerodynamic thanis usual toreduce wind noise.
Fortunehadthe opportunity todrive a Leaftest vehicle, known as a mule, atNissan'sproving ground atthe Oppamatrack outside Tokyo. The Leaf'selectricpower train andcontrols weremounted in the body of anothercar to givethe experienceof drivingthe car without revealing theoverall design.
Insteadoffamiliarengine noises, there is onlya quiet hum as the cargetsunderway.Acceleration is perfectly smooth;there is no shiftingofgears. Likehybrids, the Leaf is slow to getgoing and doesn't reach60miles an houruntil nearly 10 seconds haveelapsed (vs. sevensecondsor less for mostnew cars). Once it getscruising (top speed issaid tobe 90 miles anhour), the Leaf feels likea conventional car. Itridessmoothly, steerssmartly, and brakes withassurance. All thatextraweight beneath thefloor never reveals itself.One caveat: WhileNissanadvertises the Leafas a five-passenger car,the productionversion iscramped in the rearseat for normal-sizeadults.
A lotmore isnew about the Leaf thanjust its drivesystem. It is a"drive-by-wire"car, meaning that there isno directmechanical linkageto thecontrols. The gear selector is ajoystick-likeknob in thecenterconsole rather than a lever going downinto thetransmission.Otherelectronics are aimed at alleviating rangeanxiety.An onboardcomputerincludes a display that shows the batterystrength,points outchargingstations within the driving radius, andcalculateshow closethevehicle is to its destination.
Nissan haschosenanunusualmarketing strategy for the Leaf. Instead ofemphasizingitsuniquetechnology, it will stress the appeal of otherfeatureslikestylingand safety, with its zero-emissions capabilitytouted asabonus. Intheory that will keep the Leaf from beingpigeonholed asaneco-car.
Theresponse from potential customers sofar hasbeenenthusiastic.Nissan's North American boss, Carlos Tavares,hadcountedmore than40,000 "hand raisers" -- car buyers who haveexpressedaninterest inthe Leaf -- as of early February. Nissan willstarttakingreservationsaccompanied by cash deposits this spring. Itsgoal istoconfirm atleast 20,000 reservations by the end of 2010.
Earlyadoptersseemdrivenas much by practicality as by environmentalconsciousness."In theU.S.access to garages and the convenience ofhome chargingunits is theNo. 1driver of interest in EVs," saysTavares.
Atfirst the Leafwill beassembled in Japan, but Nissanis investingnearly $2 billion initsSmyrna, Tenn., manufacturingcomplex so thatit can begin buildingLeafsand their batteriesbeginning in 2012. "At90 yen to the dollar,it's verychallenging toimport cars from Japan,"says Dominique. "Just30% of ourglobalproduction today is in Japan."When running at fullcapacity,Nissanwill be able to build 150,000Leafs a year at Smyrna,along with200,000batteries.
After thepurchase of the car andthebatteries,operating costs run in the EVs'favor. For instance, a carthatgets 30miles per gallon will cost$1,500 to fuel at $3 per gallonforanaverage year. Even at peakcharging times, Nissan figures thatanEVwould cost about $450 a year.At off-peak electricity prices,thecostcould be only about $150annually. The value equationlooksmorefavorable when governmentincentives are figured in. In theU.S.,forinstance, the first 200,000EVs sold by any manufacturerwillqualifyfor a $7,500 tax credit. Atthe state level, deals range froma$5,000sales tax credit in Georgiaon down.
Still, without asteeprisein oil prices, it could bea while before sales take off.IHSGlobalInsight forecasts volume ofjust 50,000 units a year in theU.S.by2013. In market share, that'sroughly 0.5% of industry salesat2009rates. The forecaster expectsthe same share of salesforChevrolet'sVolt, which operates like aplug-in hybrid. As more EVsfromothermanufacturers reach the market,interest should grow.JeffSchuster,executive director of globalforecasting for J.D.Power&Associates, says there may be as manyas 30 electric vehiclesorplug-inhybrid models undergoing testing orin production by 2012 or2013.
Nissan'spartner,Renault, hascreated a different scenariofor EVs, usingNissan's batterytechnologybut employing a much differentmethod forrecharging. It hasdevelopeda subcompact, called Fluence, thatcan berecharged by swappingitsdepleted battery pack for a fresh one.
Itisselling the carstoentrepreneur Shai Agassi, who isdevelopingbattery-swap networksinDenmark and Israel with governmentfinancing.Agassi's company,calledBetter Place, has plans to order tensofthousands of cars fromRenaultto put on the road by 2016.Agassi'sscheme was deemedimpractical forthe wide-open spaces of NorthAmericabecause it wouldrequire too manyswap stations, so it will notbecoming to the U.S. fornow.
CanNissan make any money on itsEVs?Ghosn deflects thequestion: "Thebusiness case starts with [theideathat zero-emissionsvehicles are]unavoidable," he snaps.
Hissubordinatesoffer a bitmoredetail. When asked whether the Leaf willbe highlyprofitable,AndyPalmer, the senior vice president ofproductplanning,programmanagement, and market intelligence, replies,"No, butit won'tlose usany money." Hideaki Watanabe, division generalmanagerofNissan'sglobal zero-emissions business unit, says the paybackontheinitialinvestment will be longer than five years but shorterthan10.That'slonger than typical new-car programs, which areexpectedtostartpaying back after three years.
Aswithotherbreakthroughprojects, the Leaf may look better inversion2.0.Dominique believesthat the next generation of Nissan'sbatterypackwill give the Leafsignificantly greater range. WolfgangBernhartofRoland Bergerconsultants agrees. He figures that by2020lithium-ionbatteries willstore almost twice as much energy andcostabout a thirdof what theydo today. He believes that EVs mightcommand4% of theNorth Americanmarket by then. That's a more modestforecastthanGhosn's but wouldstill allow for sales of 600,000 cars in agoodyear.
TheLeafrepresents a big bet on the future, but thenGhosnhas been makingbigbets since 1999, and he hasn't lost many. As oneoftwo CEOsrunningauto companies on two continents (the otherisFiat-Chrysler'sSergioMarchionne), he has a broader vision than most.Itis hard toarguewith his thesis that the world isheadedtowardzero-emissionssolutions. The question for him is:CanRenault-Nissanafford to keepfunding its battery program ifthatsolution is furtheroff than hethinks?
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发表于 2010-3-23 10:35:16
