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关于天士力的讨论

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发表于 2010-6-29 19:27:16 | 显示全部楼层

趋势已坏,等趋势修复再买吧。个人建议

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发表于 2010-6-30 14:19:43 | 显示全部楼层

今年的干旱对三七药材种植造成了严重影响,此药材生长期长达数年,媒体报道此次干旱好像导致云南几乎所有三七的幼苗死亡,即意味着三五年后成熟的三七在市场上有钱都卖不到。天士力的三七目前都是收购来的,储量够用3年左右, 但3年后怎么办呢?

就这个问题问了天士力,答复不是很令人放心。 公司说这确实是个问题,不过天士力的丹滴里冰片和三七总共才占10%,再说公司储备了很多三七,够用三年。三年后怎么办,被告知确实是个问题,但公司会想办法,具体什么办法不能回答,再次追问下,被告知如果三年后市场买不到三七那么其他中药厂家都会没有三七,总会有办法,极端情况就是丹滴停产等药材供应跟上了再开工,还透露说三七的有效成分可以不从根部提取而从芦头处提取,但说的很含糊,似乎有些东西不可说得太明 (或根本就是在应付我)。 也不知道是商业秘密呢还是有什么别的原因。

就此问题,各位投资人有没有相应的答复或想法呢?谢谢!

另外今天还问了关于fda的进展,公司说2期结果公布没有计划时间,但2期通过也不会马上进入三期,有些准备工作做完才能进入3期,三期根据化学药进度参考大约要2年左右 (原本以为要5年呢),3期临床期间不能上市销售。 一点信息供大家参考。

[此帖子已被 sequoyas 在 2010-6-30 14:24:13 编辑过]

[此帖子已被 sequoyas 在 2010-6-30 14:48:32 编辑过]
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发表于 2010-7-1 19:58:34 | 显示全部楼层

你想要多快?今天申请,明天通过1期,后天过2期,大后天过3期,然后一路50个涨停板???

童年哥哥,你真的适合去股吧啊。

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发表于 2010-7-2 07:42:24 | 显示全部楼层

 三七从播种到收获,要经3年以上的时间;一年生三七的根通常用做种苗,从第二年的植株起便能开花结实,一般7月现蕾,8月开花,9月结实,10至11月果实分批成熟。

今年的三七大旱仅仅是一年的问题。除非连续旱3年,不然3年的储备难道还不够用么?我看没人回答楼上老兄的问题也是为此吧。

这个东西就算是100年期的,旱了1年,也就是需要一年的储备,而不需要100年的储备啊。

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发表于 2010-6-24 21:10:56 | 显示全部楼层
FDA二期为什么还不宣布啊,不知道葫芦里卖的什么药?
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发表于 2010-6-25 11:16:30 | 显示全部楼层
医药股持续调整,看来天士力复牌又要补跌了!
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发表于 2010-6-29 14:56:50 | 显示全部楼层

初来乍到,由于我在考虑加仓天士力,但又想尽量买个比较低的位置,所以特别想请教一下大家的看法,福探请原谅啊,我知道这个问题在您看来一定不值得讨论,可是我的资金量有限是个小散户,还希望如隐士,快乐小猪,lj_ehealth, 阳光下,LEWIE, 等前辈多多指教,谢谢了。

另外福探前辈关于535的深入研究我精读了两遍,为什么看好就布罗嗦了,总之,衷心感谢了,学到了很多,也让我持有535时依然能睡好觉了。

我的问题是:

今日股价已经跌破计划增发价格26.7元,大家怎么看待呢。
对于看好535的长线投资人,在此价位加仓是否可以说比较安全呢?

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发表于 2010-7-1 16:47:32 | 显示全部楼层
在fda二期这件事情上,公司的动作似乎太缓慢了!
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发表于 2010-7-17 09:48:04 | 显示全部楼层
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发表于 2010-7-17 12:01:31 | 显示全部楼层

以下是摘自wiki百科里关于FDA二期和三期的信息。供大家参考之便。

Phase II

Once the initial safety of the study drug has been confirmed in Phase I trials, Phase II trials are performed on larger groups (20-300) and are designed to assess how well the drug works, as well as to continue Phase I safety assessments in a larger group of volunteers and patients. When the development process for a new drug fails, this usually occurs during Phase II trials when the drug is discovered not to work as planned, or to have toxic effects.

Phase II studies are sometimes divided into Phase IIA and Phase IIB.

  • Phase IIA is specifically designed to assess dosing requirements (how much drug should be given).
  • Phase IIB is specifically designed to study efficacy (how well the drug works at the prescribed dose(s)).

Some trials combine Phase I and Phase II, and test both efficacy and toxicity.

Trial design
Some Phase II trials are designed as case series, demonstrating a drug's safety and activity in a selected group of patients. Other Phase II trials are designed as randomized clinical trials, where some patients receive the drug/device and others receive placebo/standard treatment. Randomized Phase II trials have far fewer patients than randomized Phase III trials.

[edit] Phase III

Phase III studies are randomized controlled multicenter trials on large patient groups (300?3,000 or more depending upon the disease/medical condition studied) and are aimed at being the definitive assessment of how effective the drug is, in comparison with current 'gold standard' treatment. Because of their size and comparatively long duration, Phase III trials are the most expensive, time-consuming and difficult trials to design and run, especially in therapies for chronic medical conditions.

It is common practice that certain Phase III trials will continue while the regulatory submission is pending at the appropriate regulatory agency. This allows patients to continue to receive possibly lifesaving drugs until the drug can be obtained by purchase. Other reasons for performing trials at this stage include attempts by the sponsor at "label expansion" (to show the drug works for additional types of patients/diseases beyond the original use for which the drug was approved for marketing), to obtain additional safety data, or to support marketing claims for the drug. Studies in this phase are by some companies categorised as "Phase IIIB studies."[23][24]

While not required in all cases, it is typically expected that there be at least two successful Phase III trials, demonstrating a drug's safety and efficacy, in order to obtain approval from the appropriate regulatory agencies such as FDA (USA), or the EMA (European Union), for example.

Once a drug has proved satisfactory after Phase III trials, the trial results are usually combined into a large document containing a comprehensive description of the methods and results of human and animal studies, manufacturing procedures, formulation details, and shelf life. This collection of information makes up the "regulatory submission" that is provided for review to the appropriate regulatory authorities[4] in different countries. They will review the submission, and, it is hoped, give the sponsor approval to market the drug.

Most drugs undergoing Phase III clinical trials can be marketed under FDA norms with proper recommendations and guidelines, but in case of any adverse effects being reported anywhere, the drugs need to be recalled immediately from the market. While most pharmaceutical companies refrain from this practice, it is not abnormal to see many drugs undergoing Phase III clinical trials in the market.[25]

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