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The Real Warren Buffett - 巴菲特每周新闻专贴

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-3-12 13:02:53 | 显示全部楼层
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原文由 lewie 发表于 2009-3-12 12:49:08 :
呵呵,本人对巴老的崇敬之心,不会比论坛上任何一位低。如果翻看以前的帖子,就略知一二了。只是想通过此事带出一个观点:不要因为某人身上的一些闪光点(即使这些闪光点很多很亮),就无条件地全盘接受他的一切观点,需要有自己的独立思考和判断。向人家学习,并不等于要顶礼膜拜式的盲从。实事求是地分析人家讲的每一个观点,合乎逻辑的就接纳,鲁迅先生所讲的“扬弃”是也!
lewie兄无需解释,君心似我心也!
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发表于 2009-3-18 00:37:23 | 显示全部楼层

巴菲特的以前的乐观来自于对美国实力的信心。不过最近读了一遍CNBC的访谈节目,似乎巴对美国的前景表示担忧,把当前的形势描述为经济战争。3小时的对话中反复地要求总统发表信心宣言,并要求总统临时接管经济领导权。一向推崇和尊敬的巴菲特非常非常审时度势,并且勇于认错、积极应对。美国的经济确实问题不小啊。读谈话节目的原文,连停顿和重复都一字不拉,好处是可以原汁原味地接近谈话人的真实想法。我的感觉是老巴虽然对前景依然“乐观”(处于他的位置,他必须乐观),但是对目前的美国经济,甚至是运行了几百年的经济的根基表示很深的担忧。一个很强烈的信息是对长期通货膨胀的极度担忧。目前美国的股市表现或许正是所谓的“死猫跳”。

[此帖子已被 solino 在 2009-3-18 12:39:58 编辑过]
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发表于 2009-3-18 21:20:01 | 显示全部楼层
谢谢highlander!巴菲特说“坏消息是投资者的最好朋友”,你带来的却是好消息,但是你是很好的朋友!
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 楼主| 发表于 2009-4-7 16:26:50 | 显示全部楼层

过去一周巴老相关动态:

《滚雪球》作者谈及出书后与巴老的紧张关系;

巴郡借贷所付利息居然高过几近破产的花旗、房利美、房地美和美国银行等,劣企驱逐良企?

盖兹基金赞助美剧《ER》传播公益信息;

比亚迪计划在5月2日的巴郡年会上展示其F3DM或E6车型,另南华早报称巴郡对比亚迪10%的投资可能需要得到中国政府批准,双方因此计划把协议期限延长到9月26日;

TheStreet.com传出谣言,指巴郡可能联合广深铁路收购BNSF;

商业周刊的Ben Steverman撰文质疑巴老等价值投资风格不再如过往那样适用当前萧条股市。


Published Sunday April 5, 2009
Warren Watch: 'Snowball' author strained close friendship over book
BY STEVE JORDON
WORLD-HERALD STAFF WRITER

Biographer Alice Schroeder, saying her book's accounts of Warren Buffett's relationships are "juicy, juicy, juicy," told the Tribune-Herald of Waco, Texas, that Buffett "eased me out of a bad marriage that needed to be done, and I was in denial about it."

"He helped me understand how you should be treated, and he has a way of treating people that is very respectful and of conveying how people should behave toward each other and that criticism is very harmful.

"I have since remarried, by the way, and I insisted that he have approval rights over my new husband," Schroeder said.

After spending hundreds of hours with Buffett researching "The Snowball: Warren Buffett and the Business of Life," Schroeder said, she concluded that nobody can duplicate his investment success.

"He's not only brilliant, but he works like a demon from morning until night, and he's been doing that for 70 years. So when you see him and you're around him, you realize the futility of trying to replicate his achievement. It can't be done."

Schroeder said that Buffett is sensitive to criticism and that she knew her relationship with him might be strained by the contents of the book, but "my responsibility was to write for the readers of the book, not to write a book that would please him."

"I knew that there was a good chance that he might never speak to me again," said Schroeder, who has said the two have exchanged e-mails but haven't spoken since the book's release in September.

"Warren's a wonderful person. I see his flaws. I see his greatness. Of course I would enjoy having a relationship with him again, but I made the choice that I made for a reason and that was what was important to me."

Paying more

Highly rated Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is paying more to borrow money than bailed-out Citigroup, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Bank of America.

Bloomberg News said the Omaha investment firm headed by Buffett recently sold bonds paying 4 percent while the troubled companies pay 2.375 percent or less because their bonds are backed by the U.S. government.

Buffett, Berkshire's chairman, pointed out the disparity in his annual letter to shareholders. "At the moment, it is much better to be a financial cripple with a government guarantee than a Gibraltar without one."

He has supported efforts to resolve the financial crisis, however.

Berkshire sold three-year notes on March 26, with the proceeds to make loans to people who buy pre-fabricated houses from Berkshire's Clayton Homes Inc. division.

'Message placement'

New York Times writers Tim Arango and Brian Stelter reported that money from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation helped develop a script for a recent episode of the TV series "ER" that featured George Clooney.

It was part of an effort by the foundation, to which Buffett is donating the bulk of his wealth, to become "a behind-the-scenes influencer of public attitudes toward these issues by helping to shape story lines and insert messages into popular entertainment."

Those issues include HIV prevention, surgical safety and the spread of infectious diseases.

The "message placement" effort includes a deal with Viacom, the parent company of MTV and sister networks VH1, Nickelodeon and BET, the story said.

Philippe P. Dauman, CEO of Viacom, said the company supports education-theme story lines in programs and donating air time for public service announcements under a consulting partnership with the Gates Foundation called Get Schooled.

The Times said the Kaiser Family Foundation has been working health-related themes into programs on CBS and other networks for a dozen years, but the Gates Foundation's direct spending is new.

Electric vehicles

BYD Co., the Chinese company that attracted Buffett's attention, plans to exhibit its F3DM or its E6 electric vehicles at Berkshire's annual shareholders meeting in Omaha May 2, according to AutoblogGreen.

BYD (which stands for Build Your Dreams) has been selling the F3DM in China since December and displayed cars at the Detroit Auto Show in January.

The Wall Street Journal reported that BYD might supply its battery technology to U.S. and European car companies. Chairman Wang Chuanfu said BYD's advantage is producing iron-phosphate-based lithium-ion batteries at a low cost.

The South China Morning Post reported that a planned 10 percent investment in the company by Berkshire will be delayed, waiting for approvals from Chinese government regulatory bodies.

Berkshire's MidAmerican Energy Holdings division and BYD agreed to extend the investment deadline to Sept. 26.

Railroad purchase?

TheStreet.com reported rumors that Berkshire may join with Guangshen Railway of China to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railway, of which Berkshire already owns 22 percent.

But Berkshire rarely makes partnership-type purchases, preferring to be the sole owner. Most of Berkshire's recent purchases have been privately owned companies, not publicly traded companies like BNSF.

Question of style

Business Week's Ben Steverman wrote that the value investing style of Buffett and others isn't working as it has during past depressed stock markets.

"The past year has sometimes looked like a practical joke that the stock market is playing on value investors," Steverman wrote.

Value investors buy good companies at reasonable prices with long-term growth in mind, avoiding fast-growing, expensive stocks and not worrying about day-to-day gyrations of the stock market.

"But amid a severe recession and financial crisis, true value has proven to be a slippery concept," Steverman wrote.

"It's only a value if you can accurately assess today what the future profits will be," said Richard Sparks of Schaeffer's Investment Research. The current situation makes that assessment particularly difficult.

Value investors did well when the dot-com market bubble burst because they had avoided high-tech companies, but in late 2007 and 2008 many of them viewed financial stocks as good investments.

U.S. Bancorp, Wells Fargo and American Express, all with substantial Berkshire ownership, have dropped sharply. Some value investors waited to buy such shares when they appeared to be cheap, only to see them fall even more.

"The value traps out there were really big," said Russell Croft, portfolio manager of the Croft Value Fund.

But doing poorly for a year or two doesn't mean value investing is dead, said Lawrence Creatura of Federated Clover Investment Advisors. "The selling at times has been so incredibly irrational that there is a high probability that some stocks are mispriced. The value investor's job (is) to identify those mispricings."

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-12-15 23:39:31 | 显示全部楼层

Warren Buffett's Burlington Northern Railroad Stake Tops 20%

Posted By:Alex Crippen

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has increased its stake in Burlington Northern Santa Fe to over 20 percent with another options-related stock buy.

In its second SEC filing in three days, Berkshire reveals it bought a total of 2,217,500 shares on Thursday, December 11 for just over $167 million. Average price: $75.45, on a day the stock traded between $74.20 and $77.44.

That brings its total holdings in the freight railroad to 70,089,029 shares, or 20.47 percent of Burlington's stock.

It's a second set of option-related purchases. In October, Berkshire wrote put options on the shares, agreeing to buy them at a set price this month in exchange for a cash payment at the time. It's a form of insurance, designed to limit the potential losses of holding Burlington stock for the buyers of the options.

In an SEC filing on Wednesday, Berkshire said it bought 3.3 million shares on Monday and Tuesday as put options it wrote were exercised. (See the WBW post Warren Buffett's Burlington Northern Stake Rises To Almost 20% After Options-Related Stock Buy.)

Added together, Berkshire has bought 5,478,611 shares over four days, raising its stake from 18.9 percent as of the end of October to over 20 percent on Thursday.

The stock closed Friday at $71.38, much closer to its 52-week low of $68.31 in late November than its high of $114.58 in June. Current price: [BNI 70.73 -0.65 (-0.91%) ]

It will be interesting to see if Buffett picks up even more shares as they fluctuate around $70. Most of the reported purchases since the summer of 2007 have been between $75 and $80.

Current Berkshire stock prices:

Class A: [US;BRK.A 97100.0 -1290.00 (-1.31%)

Class B: [US;BRK.B 3215.0 -27.00 (-0.83%)
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 楼主| 发表于 2008-12-26 20:12:23 | 显示全部楼层

Wednesday, 24 Dec 2008
Bruised Berkshire Holds Lead Over Battered Benchmark Going Into Christmas Break
Posted By: Alex Crippen

Both sides have been bruised and battered this year, but Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 stock index going into the Christmas break.

With four trading days remaining in 2008, Berkshire's stock is down 33.6 percent year-to-date. The S&P has dropped 40.9 percent.

Last year, Berkshire scored a 28.7 percent gain, its biggest increase since 1998. That trounced the S&P's 3.5 percent advance.

If Berkshire does hold on, it will be the third straight year that it has outperformed the S&P, following three consecutive years of underperforming the index.

Current Berkshire stock prices:

Class A: [US;BRK.A 94000.0]

Class B: [US;BRK.B 3115.0]

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-12-31 01:18:26 | 显示全部楼层
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原文由 黑暗撒克 发表于 2008-12-31 0:57:20 :
最好能简单翻译一下,英文不是很懂

十分抱歉,如本人在本贴篇首所言,因时间和精力有限,只提供经过本人精选后的巴老相关信息,多以英文为主。

建议安装谷歌金山词霸(http://g.iciba.com/),以方便即译生僻单词。

如有什么具体不懂的地方(整篇翻译,实难担当这种工作量,见谅),可发帖或信息询问,我将尽量作答,也希望各位高手相助,以求共进!谢谢。

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发表于 2009-1-3 00:04:10 | 显示全部楼层

做软件的,没人敢对比尔.盖茨说三道四;做管理的,没人敢对韦尔奇品头论足。但这个世界上却总有这么些人:自己还是个靠“高抛低吸”把戏的打工仔,却敢对巴非特的投资说不是,“巴非特这回亏定了……”。以示自己比巴非特高明。

穷人终究是穷人。说这些人不懂股票已经是很轻了,井底之蛙。

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 楼主| 发表于 2008-12-31 01:02:24 | 显示全部楼层

现金是王,在08年已扔出巨额现金购买GE, Goldman Sachs等后,伯克希尔仍傲居世界企业界现金榜首,让你不得不感慨:股神就是股神。期待巴老在09年有更精彩的手笔!

中行、工行和建行也算为咱国人挣了口气,总算是在净现金值上位居世界前列,而不是靠去年疯狂牛市膨胀出来的市值;不过风物长宜放眼量,我相信,总有一天,我们将会看到中国金融巨头们,其总收入和利润等指标均位居财富500强首位,只是在这一天到来之前,谁会为我们带来最高回报呢?


BUFFETT AND CHINA BANKS TOP CASH-RICH GROUPS LIST
By Richard Milne in London 2008-12-30

Twenty of the largest listed companies in the world are sitting on a combined cashpile of $570bn, demonstrating how some of the world's biggest groups retain substantial firepower in the current downturn.

However, only 29 of the top 100 global companies by market value have net cash, according to analysis by the Financial Times. But those that do should be in a strong position in a severe downturn that is causing companies to scramble to conserve cash.

The list is led by four financial institutions with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway at the top with $106bn in net cash, defined as cash and short-term investments or marketable securities minus debt. Strikingly, the next three positions are filled by Chinese banks with Bank of China, ICBC and China Construction Bank having $101bn, $89bn and $82bn, respectively, according to data from Bloomberg.

Executives and analysts are divided on what cash-rich companies are likely to do with their money. Some believe that with company valuations at a relative low compared with recent years the time is ripe for acquisitions.

But Philip Isherwood, European equity strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort, disagreed: “Obviously the banks are hoarding cash, so why shouldn't the corporates?” He argued that acquisitions tended to be pro-cyclical and relied on the strength of the equity market. “It is all about confidence. Will banks remain cautious? Probably. Will corporates remain cautious? Probably too,” he added.

Berkshire is one of the exceptions, having already invested in blue chips such as General Electric and Goldman Sachs.

Some other cash-rich companies have looked to take advantage of the relatively low valuations by boosting share buybacks or trying to buy rivals. Microsoft has done both while Roche, the Swiss pharmaceuticals company, is currently bidding to take over Genentech.

However, investors, who were only recently crying out for cash to be returned to them through buy-backs, are now more sanguine. “It is the understatement of the year to say I would rather have a company with a high net cash position than with debt, and we're being more relaxed with managements in that situation,” said a leading European investor.

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 楼主| 发表于 2009-1-5 21:30:03 | 显示全部楼层

呵呵,周末无巴老新闻,就炒炒旧饭,今天来讨论一下ETF和传统指数基金的区别,不知道大家是否有ETF更贴紧指数,以及更低费率,从而表现优于传统指数基金的错觉?而巴老是建议后者的。看看一位来自The Motley Fool的CFA怎么评说:


What Warren Buffett Thinks About ETFs

Exchange-traded funds have exploded in popularity in recent years, ushering in exponential growth in assets and hundreds of new ETFs to the market. ETFs were touted for their several advantages over traditional index mutual funds, including the flexibility to trade throughout the day, the ability to sell short and buy on margin, and the allure of greater tax efficiencies and generally lower fees. Thus, the debate began over whether ETFs might supplant traditional index mutual funds.

Opinions have come from both sides of the debate. But one voice often carries extra weight, as he's probably the most famous investor in the world.

Buffett weighs in
Last year, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) chairman Warren Buffett suggested that traditional index mutual funds were more appropriate for most investors, in part because there is less pressure to engage in frequent trading. He feels that with ETFs, investors may face pressure from their brokers, who stand to make money from any trading activity.

Now, anytime an investment guru makes a pronouncement, I always hesitate a bit. I think the worst thing you can do in life, and in investing, is to assume that the superstars always get it right. Just because he's Warren Buffett doesn't mean everyone should blindly nod and agree with him. Fools always need to put their own critical-thinking hats on before coming to their own conclusions. However, I think in this case, Buffett is absolutely right.

I have no inherent problem with ETFs -- they were no doubt created in response to an unfulfilled market demand. I think ETFs on their own merits are terrific investments and can provide investors with access to segments of the market that are essential to success. A broad-based ETF like Diamonds (NYSE: DIA), which gives exposure to Dow industrials stocks like Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), and Boeing (NYSE: BA), makes sense for many investors.

However, the problem arises with how investors actually use some ETFs. Just because these funds can be traded at every minute of the trading day, that doesn't mean you should actually be doing it that often. If buying an ETF leads you to try to be a market timer, then you are fighting a losing battle, my friend. It's been proved many times that individual investors are poor market timers and are much more likely to make the wrong calls than they are to time the market correctly.

Theory vs. real life
But what about those other purported advantages of ETFs, namely tax efficiency and lower fees? Shouldn't those translate into a slight performance advantage over traditional index funds? Well, some research from Morningstar and The Wall Street Journal last year showed that when it comes to real-life returns, ETFs actually performed worse than index mutual funds.

Morningstar looked at several of the biggest and most popular index funds and ETFs in several different categories and found that, almost across the board, the biggest, lowest-cost index funds, such as those offered by Fidelity and Vanguard, outperformed the corresponding ETFs. In fact, the index funds outperformed in 34 of the 40 time periods studied, including all of the one-year, three-year, and 10-year after-tax categories. And this study didn't even take into consideration the commissions ETF investors incurred each time they trade their shares, which means that frequent traders may very likely be digging themselves into a greater hole compared with holders of traditional index funds.

The bottom line
Does this mean that ETFs are not all they're cracked up to be? Well, yes and no. Exchange-traded funds can absolutely serve a purpose in the portfolios of many investors. And given their low costs, they can outperform many traditional actively managed mutual funds.

But when it comes to real-world applications, broad-based ETF returns have lagged low-cost index mutual funds. Admittedly, they don't lag by a wide margin, but even that little bit can add up over time.

If there is a strategic reason for you to own an ETF, by all means do so. But don't assume that just because ETFs are all the rage right now, you're missing out by not owning any. After all, if Warren Buffett thinks that most investors would be better served by sticking to low-fee index mutual funds, maybe we should listen.

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