The Real Warren Buffett - 巴菲特每周新闻专贴

aa33

股市资金头寸降至五年最低 巴菲特公司转投债市

仰仗资本市场二季度以来的强力反弹,股神巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔?哈撒韦公司(BerkshireHathawayInc，以下简称伯克希尔公司)在二季度顺利“扭亏为盈”，当季实现盈利33亿美元。值得注意的是，伯克希尔公司目前在股市的资金头寸已经降到了五年来的最低值，取而代之的是企业和他国政府债券。

　　伯克希尔公司在宣布二季度业绩时表示，6月底公司的保险部门持有111亿美元外国政府债券，而三个月前只有96亿美元。巴菲特二季度在债券上投资了26亿美元，而在股市上仅投入了3.5亿美元。

　　巴菲特第二季度在股票上的投资额为3.5亿美元，创下2005年以来的最低值。今年一季度，公司在包括富国银行等股票上的头寸为6.24亿美元。另外，公司抛掉了较多今年购买的普通股。巴菲特承认其在商品价格处于高位的时候购买康菲石油公司的股票是一个“重大错误”，这也导致公司一季度的亏损。

　　巴菲特购买的企业债中包括奢侈品珠宝商蒂凡尼 (Tiffany&Co.)、著名摩托车制造商哈里摩托(Harley-DavidsonInc.)等，此外他还在去年金融危机最严重的时候果断出手，购买了高盛集团和通用电气的优先股，这些举措使伯克希尔旗下保险和金融运作部门的投资收益在今年二季度增加9%至18.7亿美元。
美国大学(AmericanUniversity)商学院的金融教授GeraldMartin表示，经济衰退的环境下，符合巴菲特投资要求的股票越来越少，因此他把目光转移到固定收益证券上。在某些情况下，债券产生的收益与股市收益相差不多。

　　也有研究者指出，巴菲特之所以增加他国政府债券，或许是因为他认为美国的通胀程度将比世界其他地区恶劣。

　　伯克希尔公司上周五公布的第二季度业绩显示，因其投资组合价值回升，二季度公司实现净利润33亿美元(合每股收益2123美元)，去年同期为28.8亿美元(合每股1859美元)。而今年第一季度，公司亏损15.3亿美元。

［此帖子已被 aa33 在 2009-8-11 12:04:31 编辑过］

福尔莫斯

呵呵，ICE上面转贴的一幕，在我看来只是时间问题。

仅仅在本论坛，可以翻翻去年10月份，在世界金融危机肆虐之盛时，但巴菲特宣布斥巨资入市时，多少被跌势吓坏、但似乎终于“反思懂”懂了的"好心人"疾呼“股神这次倒掉的概率99%“，“热心”地向世界宣告：金融危机才“刚刚”开始，躲过的人才有“春天”。不知这些人有何自知之明，有过何金融市场上的经验，都敢对历经50多年风雨的投资人大放厥词。

其实很简单，如果始终学不会如何在危机时投资这一课，那最好不要在股市上玩。

atcoolman

伯郡回应：我们并没有在衍生品风险上‘搞砸’，事缘8月13日路透社出了一个头条，指伯克希尔?哈撒韦低估了其指数对赌合约的风险，而其文章的信息来源则是根据伯郡于6月26日写给美国证监会的一封信，信中伯郡解释他们怎么样计算其数十亿美元股票指数看跌期权的当前价值。

其实也没有什么新鲜的，无非是证明天下媒体都一样，重视短期表现甚于长期，也许他们这样做也是为了吸引眼球，增加销量罢了！

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Berkshire Hathaway: We Did Not "Goof" on Derivative Risks
Published: Friday, 14 Aug 2009 | 1:33 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer

Berkshire Hathaway isn't happy with a Reuters story initially published with the headline, "Buffett's Berkshire: We Goofed On Derivative Risks."

(CNBC.com's headline when it ran the same Reuters story was Berkshire Stands By Valuation Of Its Derivatives Contracts.)

The article is based on a June 26 letter from Berkshire to the SEC(msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/CNBC/Sections/News_And_Analysis/_Blogs/Warren_Buffett_Watch/_DAILY%20POSTS/Documents/Berlshire%20Letter%20to%20SEC%202009-06-26.pdf) in which Warren Buffett's company discusses how it calculated the current value of billions of dollars in equity index put option contracts it has written.

Berkshire CFO Marc Hamburg tells Warren Buffett Watch, "There is no indication whatsoever in my letter to the SEC that we made an error or that we underestimated the risks of falling stock prices."

The SEC had asked Berkshire how it determined "weighted average volatility," one of the assumptions that goes into a formula for estimating the current value of long-term option contracts.

The contracts are essentially insurance policies that protect buyers against the possibility that four global stock indexes will lose value between the time the policies were written and the time the policies expire. Those expirations are far in the future, between 2018 and 2028.

Even though Berkshire won't have to pay any claims until expiration, the company must come up with a current "mark to market" value for the contracts, and include that "paper" gain, or loss, in its earnings reports.
(About $1.5 billion in derivatives gains helped push Berkshire's net into the black for the second quarter.)

The SEC asked why the volatility figure used by Berkshire in 2008 was "relatively unchanged" from the 2007 figure, given the big declines in stock prices during the year.

In its letter, Berkshire replies that its volatility assumption is "based upon the implied volatility at the inception of each equity index put option contract" and promised to disclose that method in future filings.

The letter continues:

"We recognize that the index values of the four indexes declined between 30% and 45% at December 31, 2008 as compared to the prior year end index values. Even though these short-term declines are in excess of our volatility inputs, we continue to believe that our volatility inputs are reasonable given the long-term nature of our equity index put option contracts which have contract expiration dates between 2019 and 2028."

Reuters translates "even though these short-term declines are in excess of our volatility inputs" into Berkshire "underestimating the risks of falling stock prices to its billions of dollars of derivatives bets," implying that Berkshire is admitting a mistake or error (or "goof.")

But there's nothing to admit.

Volatility in one year may have been higher than the company expected, but that's just for one year. Berkshire is estimating volatility over the life of the contracts, which is measured in many years. Berkshire says that long-term estimate is still "reasonable."

It was never forecasting volatility in any one year, so one unusually volatile year doesn't, on its own, mean that Berkshire "underestimated the risks" .. over the long-term.

Current Berkshire stock prices:

Class A: [BRK.A 101400.00 -750.00 (-0.73%) ]

Class B: [BRK.B 3329.00 -26.00 (-0.77%) ]

aa33

巴菲特索罗斯大幅调仓：增持医药股 减持石油股

“股神”巴菲特和“金融大鳄”索罗斯旗下的公司上周五分别向美国监管机构提交季度投资数据。巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司二季度对投资组合进行了大规模的调整，在进一步减持石油类公司时，增持了医药类公司的股票。索罗斯也不约而同减持石油股。

　　据美国证券交易委员会(SEC)资料显示，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司二季度将其在强生公司的持股量从3250万股增加至3691万股，增持比例13.6%。同时，该公司还买进了120万股医疗设备制造商Becton Dickinson & Co的股票。对上述两家公司的投资表明，巴菲特对于整个医疗医药行业的前景十分看好。

　　伯克希尔哈撒韦公司同时进一步减持了多家企业的股票，包括美国联合能源公司以及康菲石油公司。据悉，该公司将持有的美国联合能源公司1480万股全部抛出，并将康菲石油的持股量从7120万股减少至6450万股，减持近10%。不过，该公司为免泄露投资策略，向SEC申请保密部分持股资料。

　　根据该公司的最新报告，其第二季度对美国上市公司的投资总价值与第一季度相比增长了20%，由此前的408.7亿美元上升至489.5亿美元。不过，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司目前已经逐步减少对股票的投资，转而增加了对固定收益投资工具的投入。

　　与巴菲特相似，索罗斯旗下的索罗斯基金管理公司也不约而同减持了巴西石油公司和康菲石油的股票。另外，索罗斯公司还增持了美国银行、以及计算机制造商戴尔和制药公司辉瑞的股票。有分析师表示，经济衰退即将结束，各国股市纷纷上扬，巴菲特与索罗斯等投资大师的举动颇有指导性意义。

老人

68年前，西德尼.温博格抱起了小巴菲特，说：沃伦，你喜欢哪知股票？68年后，巴菲特回答了这个问题，只是这次他的决定竟让西德尼.温博格的后辈们都屏住了呼吸……。人生真是充满了峰回路转，一夜乾坤。想一想那些“在机场度过了无数个周末与节假日”的一生都在忙碌的高盛合伙人们，今天要靠一个“每天跳着舞步”去“教堂画画”的人来搭救，令人唏嘘。

aa33

看来美股上升空间有限，全球热钱涌来中国。

第一滴血

巴菲特为什么减股票增债券，不怕通胀加息？

atcoolman

巴郡公布二季持仓：

巴老在第二季度卖出股票甚于买入，但他还是新建一家位于新泽西州医疗科技公司 - Becton Dickinson的仓位，这也许意味着他看到医疗保健领域有不错的机会，因为他同时增仓强生（Johnson & Johnson）13.6%，而这个比例和他一季度增仓幅度一致。另外，在其向美证监会递交的报告中指出一些机密信息给省略，并得到后者同意，另递报告，这在以前并非没有先例，而且往往预示着巴郡在大力建仓某些股票，我记得同样情况在上次巴老建仓三只火车股就曾发生过。巴郡也同时收获去年为玛氏（Mars）、高盛（Goldman Sachs）和通用电气（General Electric）等公司提供融资的固定收益果实。也许是发现固定收益品种要甜于股票，在第二季巴郡花费25.5亿美元买入前者，而在后者上面仅投资3.5亿美金 - 这个信息在上周彭博网已有报道，国内媒体也做转载。

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Warren Buffett Adds Becton Dickinson Stake, Buys More J&J Shares
Published: Friday, 14 Aug 2009 | 5:03 PM ET
By: Alex Crippen
Executive Producer

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was doing more selling than buying of stocks during the second quarter, but there is one new holding.

In an SEC filing tonight, Berkshire reveals it held 1.2 million shares of the New Jersey-based medical technology company Becton Dickinson as of June 30. The stake was valued at $85.6 million on that date.

Becton's stock has dropped since then, bringing the current value of Berkshire's holding down to about $81 million.

That includes a small after-hours boost for the stock from Buffett's endorsement. It's rallied to $67.46 as of 5:30p ET, a 1.6 percent increase from today's 4p close of $66.39. [BDX 66.39 0.60 (+0.91%) ].

In what may be an indication that Buffett sees opportunities in health care, Berkshire also raised its existing stake in Johnson & Johnson [JNJ 60.08 -0.24 (-0.4%) ] to 36.9 million shares from 32.5 million, an increase of 13.6 percent. That's the same percentage increase we saw for J&J in the first quarter of this year, but the stake is still well below the 61.7 million shares held at the end of September last year.

Buffett wrote in his annual letter to shareholders that Berkshire sold more than half its J&J shares in the fourth quarter to help raise money for the fixed-income securities it bought from Wrigley, Goldman Sachs [GS 162.73 -1.75 (-1.06%) ] and General Electric [GE 13.92 -0.18 (-1.28%) ].

While Berkshire was doing some buying, there's a longer list of stocks that got cut during the quarter.

Berkshire slashed its stake in Home Depot [HD 27.14 -0.54 (-1.95%) ] by 25.5 percent to 2.758 million shares as of June 30.

For the second consecutive quarter, Carmax [KMX 16.67 -0.64 (-3.7%) ] was cut sharply. Berkshire reports holding 9 million shares, down 25 percent from the end of the first quarter, and a little more than half the 17.6 million shares it reported as of December 31.

Berkshire holdings of UnitedHealth [UNH 28.06 -0.31 (-1.09%) ] have also been reduced for the second straight quarter, down 24.4 percent to 3.4 million shares. The stake was reduced by almost 29 percent during the first quarter.

Berkshire also cut its holdings of Eaton [ETN 54.11 -1.21 (-2.19%) ] and Wellpoint [WLP 52.19 -0.61 (-1.16%) ].

We don't have a complete picture of Berkshire's stock holdings, and there could be a surprise to come. Tonight's filing specifically states that "confidential information has been omitted" and provided separately to the SEC.

Buffett sometimes gets permission to do this when Berkshire is building a position in a stock. The secrecy is designed to prevent copycats from buying the same stock, driving up its price.

Berkshire has been concentrating on corporate and foreign-government fixed-income investments more than equities lately, buying only $350 million worth of stock during the second quarter versus $2.55 billion of fixed-income.

American University Finance Professor Gerald Martin told Bloomberg it's a way for Berkshire to reduce its risk: "Some of the normal places he’s gotten the cash to invest are just getting killed in the recession. So he’s locking in these guaranteed returns, moving from the volatility of stocks to a steady stream of income that, in some cases, is almost at the return you normally get from the stock market.”

Here are the details from tonight's Berkshire Hathaway portfolio snapshot as of June 30, 2009, compared to the filing for March 31, 2009:

ADDED/ELIMINATED STAKES

Becton Dickinson added at 1.2 million shares.
[BDX 66.39 0.60 (+0.91%) ]

Constellation Energy eliminated. Berkshire disclosed on June 1 it had sold all of the 14,828,207 shares it reported holding as of March 31.
[CEG 29.10 0.07 (+0.24%) ]

INCREASED STAKES

Johnson & Johnson stake increased 13.6% to 36,914,633 shares from 32,508,891 shares. [JNJ 60.08 -0.24 (-0.4%) ]

DECREASED STAKES

Carmax stake decreased 25.0% to 9,000,000 shares from 12,000,000 shares. [KMX 16.67 -0.64 (-3.7%) ]

ConocoPhillips stake decreased 9.5% to 64,485,759 shares from 71,228,096 shares. In its first quarter earnings news release in May, Berkshire said it had sold 13.7 million shares during the January-March quarter and "additional shares were sold subsequent to the end of the quarter." [COP 43.77 -0.44 (-1%) ]

Eaton Corp. stake decreased 37.5% to 2,000,000 shares from 3,200,000 shares. [ETN 54.11 -1.21 (-2.19%) ]
Home Depot stake decreased 25.5% to 2,757,898 shares from 3,700,000 shares. [HD 27.14 -0.54 (-1.95%) ]

UnitedHealth Group stake decreased 24.4% to 3,400,000 shares from 4,500,000 shares. [UNH 28.06 -0.31 (-1.09%) ]

UNCHANGED STAKES

American Express unchanged at 151,610,700 shares.
[AXP 31.72 -0.26 (-0.81%) ]

Bank of America unchanged at 5,000,000 shares.
[BAC 17.39 0.39 (+2.29%) ]

Burlington Northern unchanged at 76,777,029 shares.
[BNI 82.63 -0.82 (-0.98%) ]

Coca-Cola unchanged at 200,000,000 shares.
[KO 48.47 0.35 (+0.73%) ]

Comcast unchanged at 12,000,000 shares.
[CMCSA 14.81 -0.14 (-0.94%) ]

Comdisco unchanged at 1,538,377 shares.
[CDCO 7.50 --- UNCH (0) ]

Costco Wholesale unchanged at 5,254,000 shares.
[COST 48.63 -0.25 (-0.51%) ]

Gannett unchanged at 3,447,600 shares.
[GCI 8.17 0.07 (+0.86%) ]

General Electric unchanged at 7,777,900 shares.
[GE 13.92 -0.18 (-1.28%) ]

GlaxoSmithKline unchanged at 1,510,500 shares.
[GSK 38.50 -0.36 (-0.93%) ]

Ingersoll-Rand unchanged at 7,782,600 shares.
[IR 28.91 -0.79 (-2.66%) ]

Iron Mountain unchanged at 3,372,200 shares.
[IRM 28.46 -0.43 (-1.49%) ]

Kraft Foods unchanged at 138,272,500 shares.
[KFT 28.10 -0.25 (-0.88%) ]

Lowes Companies unchanged at 6,500,000 shares.
[LOW 22.83 -0.48 (-2.06%) ]

M&T Bank unchanged at 6,715,060 shares.
[MTB 60.02 -0.25 (-0.41%) ]

Moody's unchanged at 48,000,000 shares. On July 22, after the end of the second quarter, Berkshire disclosed that it had cut its stake in Moody's by 16.6 percent to 40,013,700 shares. [MCO 24.52 -0.33 (-1.33%) ]

Nalco Holding unchanged at 9,000,000 shares.
[NLC 17.51 -0.30 (-1.68%) ]

Nike unchanged at 7,641,000 shares.
[NKE 56.86 -0.95 (-1.64%) ]

Norfolk Southern unchanged at 1,933,000 shares.
[NSC 47.27 -1.32 (-2.72%) ]

NRG Energy unchanged at 7,200,000 shares.
[NRG 28.95 0.55 (+1.94%) ]

Procter & Gamble unchanged at 96,316,010 shares.
[PG 52.37 0.07 (+0.13%) ]

Sanofi Aventis unchanged at 3,903,933 shares.
[SNY 32.52 -0.29 (-0.88%) ]

SunTrust Banks unchanged at 3,204,600 shares.
[STI 21.05 -0.22 (-1.03%) ]

Torchmark unchanged at 2,823,879 shares.
[TMK 40.82 -0.91 (-2.18%) ]

US Bancorp unchanged at 69,039,426 shares.
[USB 22.49 -0.06 (-0.27%) ]

USG unchanged at 17,072,192 shares.
[USG 14.29 -0.71 (-4.73%) ]

Union Pacific unchanged at 9,558,000 shares.
[UNP 60.82 -0.69 (-1.12%) ]

United Parcel Service unchanged at 1,429,200 shares.
[UPS 53.53 -0.59 (-1.09%) ]

Wabco Holdings unchanged at 2,700,000 shares.
[WBC 19.92 0.12 (+0.61%) ]

Wal-Mart Stores unchanged at 19,944,300 shares.
[WMT 51.79 -0.09 (-0.17%) ]

Washington Post unchanged at 1,727,765 shares.
[WPO 471.30 -4.30 (-0.9%) ]

Wells Fargo unchanged at 302,609,212 shares.
[WFC 27.73 -0.15 (-0.54%) ]

Wellpoint stake unchanged at 4,777,300 shares.
[WLP 52.19 -0.61 (-1.16%) ]

Wesco Financial unchanged at 5,703,087 shares.
[WSC 305.25 -4.75 (-1.53%) ]

Current Berkshire stock prices:

Class A: [BRK.A 101400.00 -750.00 (-0.73%) ]

Class B: [BRK.B 3329.00 -26.00 (-0.77%) ]

atcoolman

巴老最近在《纽约时报》再次发文??《美钞效应》称，美国政府为应对金融危机向金融体系注入的大量流动性将对美国经济及美元造成威胁，必须采取措施遏制债务飙升。下面是原文：

The Greenback Effect

By

WARREN E. BUFFETT

Published: August 18, 2009

Omaha

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/opinion/19buffett.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

IN nature, every action has consequences, a phenomenon called the butterfly effect. These consequences, moreover, are not necessarily proportional. For example, doubling the carbon dioxide we belch into the atmosphere may far more than double the subsequent problems for society. Realizing this, the world properly worries about greenhouse emissions.

The butterfly effect reaches into the financial world as well. Here, the United States is spewing a potentially damaging substance into our economy ? greenback emissions.

To be sure, we’ve been doing this for a reason I resoundingly applaud. Last fall, our financial system stood on the brink of a collapse that threatened a depression. The crisis required our government to display wisdom, courage and decisiveness. Fortunately, the Federal Reserve and key economic officials in both the Bush and Obama administrations responded more than ably to the need.

They made mistakes, of course. How could it have been otherwise when supposedly indestructible pillars of our economic structure were tumbling all around them? A meltdown, though, was avoided, with a gusher of federal money playing an essential role in the rescue.

The United States economy is now out of the emergency room and appears to be on a slow path to recovery. But enormous dosages of monetary medicine continue to be administered and, before long, we will need to deal with their side effects. For now, most of those effects are invisible and could indeed remain latent for a long time. Still, their threat may be as ominous as that posed by the financial crisis itself.

To understand this threat, we need to look at where we stand historically. If we leave aside the war-impacted years of 1942 to 1946, the largest annual deficit the United States has incurred since 1920 was 6 percent of gross domestic product. This fiscal year, though, the deficit will rise to about 13 percent of G.D.P., more than twice the non-wartime record. In dollars, that equates to a staggering $1.8 trillion. Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory.

Because of this gigantic deficit, our country’s “net debt” (that is, the amount held publicly) is mushrooming. During this fiscal year, it will increase more than one percentage point per month, climbing to about 56 percent of G.D.P. from 41 percent. Admittedly, other countries, like Japan and Italy, have far higher ratios and no one can know the precise level of net debt to G.D.P. at which the United States will lose its reputation for financial integrity. But a few more years like this one and we will find out.

An increase in federal debt can be financed in three ways: borrowing from foreigners, borrowing from our own citizens or, through a roundabout process, printing money. Let’s look at the prospects for each individually ? and in combination.

The current account deficit ? dollars that we force-feed to the rest of the world and that must then be invested ? will be $400 billion or so this year. Assume, in a relatively benign scenario, that all of this is directed by the recipients ? China leads the list ? to purchases of United States debt. Never mind that this all-Treasuries allocation is no sure thing: some countries may decide that purchasing American stocks, real estate or entire companies makes more sense than soaking up dollar-denominated bonds. Rumblings to that effect have recently increased.

Then take the second element of the scenario ? borrowing from our own citizens. Assume that Americans save $500 billion, far above what they’ve saved recently but perhaps consistent with the changing national mood. Finally, assume that these citizens opt to put all their savings into United States Treasuries (partly through intermediaries like banks).

Even with these heroic assumptions, the Treasury will be obliged to find another $900 billion to finance the remainder of the $1.8 trillion of debt it is issuing. Washington’s printing presses will need to work overtime.

Slowing them down will require extraordinary political will. With government expenditures now running 185 percent of receipts, truly major changes in both taxes and outlays will be required. A revived economy can’t come close to bridging that sort of gap.

Legislators will correctly perceive that either raising taxes or cutting expenditures will threaten their re-election. To avoid this fate, they can opt for high rates of inflation, which never require a recorded vote and cannot be attributed to a specific action that any elected official takes. In fact, John Maynard Keynes long ago laid out a road map for political survival amid an economic disaster of just this sort: “By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.... The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.”

I want to emphasize that there is nothing evil or destructive in an increase in debt that is proportional to an increase in income or assets. As the resources of individuals, corporations and countries grow, each can handle more debt. The United States remains by far the most prosperous country on earth, and its debt-carrying capacity will grow in the future just as it has in the past.

But it was a wise man who said, “All I want to know is where I’m going to die so I’ll never go there.” We don’t want our country to evolve into the banana-republic economy described by Keynes.

Our immediate problem is to get our country back on its feet and flourishing ? “whatever it takes” still makes sense. Once recovery is gained, however, Congress must end the rise in the debt-to-G.D.P. ratio and keep our growth in obligations in line with our growth in resources.

Unchecked carbon emissions will likely cause icebergs to melt. Unchecked greenback emissions will certainly cause the purchasing power of currency to melt. The dollar’s destiny lies with Congress.

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附新浪财经摘译：

　　在自然界中，每一个微小的行动都可能引发非常重大的后果，这种现象称为蝴蝶效应。此外，这些后果并不一定成正比。例如，我们向大气中排放的二氧化碳增加一倍，由此引发的社会问题增加可能远远超过一倍。认识到这一点，全球开始担心温室气体排放。

　　蝴蝶效应同样延伸至金融领域。美国正在向我们的经济注入具有潜在破坏性的因素??美元排放。

　　可以肯定的是，美国这样做是有原因的。去年秋天，我们的金融体系濒临崩溃，对经济造成重大威胁。这场危机要求我们的政府展示出智慧，勇气和果断。幸运的是，美联储以及布什和奥巴马政府的主要经济官员采取了应对措施。美国经济避免了崩溃，联邦资金的大量涌入发挥了至关重要的救援作用。

　　现在，美国经济正走出急诊室，似乎正处在缓慢复苏道路上。政府为对抗金融危机开出了大剂量的货币药方，不久后，我们将必须采取措施应对药方带来的副作用。现在，大部分副作用还未显现，并可能潜伏很长一段时间。但是，这些潜在威胁可能和金融危机本身一样严重。

　　美国当前财年联邦预算赤字占GDP的比重将升至13%左右，是非战时记录的两倍还多。以美元计算，这相当于1.8万亿美元。就财政而言，我们处于不祥之地。

　　正因为如此巨大的预算赤字，美国政府的债务净额将迅速增加。在本财政年度，政府债务净额每月将增加逾1个百分点，从上年的41%攀升至56%左右。

　　联邦债务的增加可以通过三种渠道进行融资：对外借款，对内借款和发行货币。美国的经常帐赤字今年将达到4000亿美元左右。并不能保证其他国家将把经常帐盈余全部用来购买美国国债：一些国家可能会决定购买美国股票、投资房地产或收购公司要比大量积累美元计价债券更有意义。

　　接下来看看第二种选择??对内借款。假设美国人储蓄了5000亿美元(这远远高于最近的储蓄水平但也许符合不断变化的形势)，并且选择把所有储蓄用于购买美国国债。即使在上述大胆假设下，美国财政部将不得不另外筹集9000亿美元来为1.8万亿美元的债务进行融资。

　　鉴于政府目前的开支是收入的185%，就要求对税收和支出进行真正的重大调整。议员将正确认识到提高税率或削减开支将威胁到他们的竞选连任。为了避免这种命运，他们选择通货膨胀率升高。事实上，凯恩斯早就针对这种情况下的政治生存制定了一幅路线图：“通过一个持续的通货膨胀过程，政府可以秘密地、难以被人察觉地没收本国公民很大以部分财富。”

　　我想强调的是，债务与收入或资产成比例增长并不是什么邪恶的事情，也不会造成很大破坏性。迄今为止，美国仍然是地球上最繁荣的国家，其债务承受能力将像过去一样在未来继续增长。

　　我们眼前的问题是让我们的国家重新站立起来，“不惜一切代价”实现经济繁荣仍然是有意义的。然而，一旦经济实现复苏，国会必须遏制债务上升势头，使债务增长速度与财力增长速度保持一致。

　　不受控制的碳排放可能会导致冰山融化。不受控制的美元排放必将导致美元的购买力减弱。美元的命运依赖于国会来决定。(兴亚)

掷铜板的人

巴菲特称美国经济已经触底 出现二次衰退可能性不大 杨博

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<DIV id=ozoom style="FLOAT: left; TEXT-INDENT: 2em; ZOOM: 100%"> 　　□本报记者 杨博 　　 　　美国“股神”巴菲特16日表示，美国经济已经触底，“尽管尚未实现反弹，但已经不再下滑。”他同时预计美国经济出现二次衰退的可能性不大。 　　巴菲特表示：“在信用卡和商业地产市场上，我们很可能出现较大损失，不过现在的情况比一年前要好得多。至少一些有毒资产已经被清理，资金也在筹集过程中。”他同时强调，美国住宅市场的最坏时期多半已过去，未来一年内的走势很可能更好，但商业地产的影响尚未完全显现。 　　据巴菲特透露，其执掌的投资旗舰伯克希尔?哈撒韦公司目前“正在买进股票”，不过他拒绝透露所购股票的名称。巴菲特强调，选股的判断依据并非在于美国经济是否在三个月、六个月或一年内走出衰退，投资者不应只重点关注商业前景，而不留意企业业务的内在价值。 </DIV>