|
想着你的笑: 600867 安全边际你觉得有吗？ I have been avoiding this topic since beginning. This time I don't want to directly talk about 600867's safety margin. However, I am willing to express my understanding of the safety margin. The safety margin is derived from medical field. The original meaning is the safety space around the instruments' table in operating room. Non-sterile personnel or subjects have to keep a distance to this table to keep sterile field. Then, engineering field uses this term, meaning either the fraction of structural capability over that required, or a multiplier applied to the maximum expected load (force, torque, bending moment or a combination) to which a component or assembly will be subjected. In the financial sector, the term given by Benjamin Graham, 'the father of value investing', to the idea that if you buy shares for less than two thirds of their net asset value, you automatically have a cushion against any deterioration in the company's trading position in the future. Put another way, 'buy cheap'.Graham's view was that it is extremely difficult to accurately predict a company's future earnings. For an investment to be 'safe', therefore, he liked to see a margin between the value of its net current assets and its share price. If the share price was below the net current assets divided by the number of shares in issue, he would consider buying it. One of the problems with Graham's approach is that in bull markets it is very difficult to find companies that fulfill his criteria. A second problem is that many of the fastest growing companies in modern economies are those whose assets are intangible - for instance, the value of their intellectual property. Under the Graham rubric, these sorts of assets would be excluded. Let's back to 600867, its holding companies, Gangli (beijing) and Jiangbao (Xiamen) will grow fast. New manager's strategy, the healthcare reform and Novo Nordisk's ambition in China are all important factors to its assets. From these aspects, 600867's intrinsic value is very difficult to tell. Everyone has one's methods to find out one stock's intrinsic value. We all know that intrinsic value is independent of the market and current quoted price. It is the absolute standard against which all market prices are compared. Thus with the method of valuation, companies are considered neither under-valued nor over-valued relative to the stock market. This would be bringing truth to error for correction, a backward approach. Rather, common stock issues are considered either under-priced or over-priced in the market relative to the intrinsic value of their companies. This brings error to truth for correction. It is more important to wait for a favorable buy price than to be dependent on fortuitous timing to realize a profitable sell price. Of course, right now is a profitable sell price as a whole market. A buy and hold approach involves more than the platitudinous adage to "buy low and sell high." The margin of safety requires knowing when the buying price is low in absolute terms rather than merely relative to the market as a whole. This technique only can be applied when Index is around 1000. But not now!
［此帖子已被 ceibbs 在 2007-4-16 3:39:45 编辑过］ | 
楼主
发表于 2007-4-15 00:25:00
发表于 2007-4-15 09:25:00
