0792盐湖钾肥现在被低估了吗？

隐士

嘿，觉得好你就拿着，没必要争得个面红耳赤的，也没必要告知众人啥20%的，这简直不算什么。大过节的何必呢。

solino

钾肥巨头之一的BPC ，占世界市场3成（1200万吨，正常的市场总需求约3600-4000万吨）。最大者加拿大萨钾，>1/3市场份额，此2家占了约7成。此外还有以色列、德国等几家上规模的，中国的盐湖仅1/20的份额，即使罗钾扩产总和也不过国内市场的3-4成（世界份额1成多）。钾肥分布之集中，格局不言而喻。所以：

Belarus president rejects lower potash price

MINSK, May 8 (Reuters) - Belarus, home to the world's largest potash exporter, should not accept lower prices for the soil nutrient despite a dip in demand linked to the world financial crisis, President Alexander Lukashenko said on Friday.

The Belarussian Potash Co, a 50-50 joint venture between Belaruskali and Russian miner Uralkali , covers about 30 percent of world potash markets. Exports amount to over 12 million tonnes to 45 countries, led by China, India and Brazil.

Potash prices last year rose to record levels of $1,000 per tonne, but the company has faced declining demand for its production in recent months.

"We have to tell our customers in China, India and other countries that we cannot let the price drop," the official BELTA news agency quoted Lukashenko as telling the company's head during a visit to its mines in southern Belarus.

"We must have a proper price for potash to enable us to work in profitable fashion. We should make no concessions."

The Belarusssian Potash Co is discussing prices with China and analysts say talks are likely to continue through the planting season. Belaruskali's exports last year totalled 6.5 million tonnes, but are forecast this year at 5.0-5.5 million.

Potash buyers, contending with currency fluctuations and under less pressure to boost crop yields since commodity prices fell, are holding out for the lower prices seen for other types of fertiliser. [ID:nLS165599]

"We have seen a wait-and-see attitude abroad," Lukashenko was quoted as saying. "They think we will provide fertiliser at a loss. Well, we're not going to do that."

This year's spot benchmark price for potash has been set around $750 per tonne with deliveries into Brazil, where Uralkali has sold around four cargoes over the past month as inventories there have run low.

Potash fertiliser, oil products and heavy trucks are Belarus's key exports, amounting last year to some $3.5 billion. (Reporting by Andrei Makhovsky, writing by Ron Popeski, Editing by Peter Blackburn)

迷惘的投资人

注意:我不知道机构们是如何推算钾肥价格,我就是这样推算的.一家之言,不可采信.仅略供参考.有高手者应当去指出我推算过程中的错误,会让我受益非浅.

迷惘的投资人

回

隐士

呵呵,原来这论坛贵宾会员也有说风凉话的人.似乎和这论坛风格有些不符.我只偶尔路过,因为受坛内某些严谨的研究和探讨吸引才来的.

solino

对比一下铁矿石，目前的长协价比08年降33%，中国要求40%。铁矿石近年来也同样大幅上涨，回落是很自然的。钾肥也一样。基本的降幅似乎与铁矿石类似。钾肥前几年涨幅并不大，主要是07年底开始的。记得钾肥供应商一直在谋求一个较高的价格，好不容易追随石油的暴涨形成了现在这样的价格体系。回落也很正常。迷惘兄的分析我没有仔细推敲，基本在情理之中。如今石油价格又回到60以上，不算很便宜的价格，虽然和去年的超过100不好比。

长期看，以美元计价的各种商品都会上涨，这个预期概率很大。实际上，世界范围内任何以信用货币（纸币）计价的商品价格肯定会随着时间的推移而上涨。买家和卖家心里都很清楚。

bftfans

盐钾还是值得珍藏的好公司。