讨论通化东宝（600867）

ceibbs

Hi! everyone, I would like using Chinese talking with you but I only can input English in my computer now. Sorry for any inconvenience.

I like your challenging, it is a good question. Here is my answer.

What I disagree with you:

First, there is a logical misunderstanding. Whatever insulins from different companies selling in China are insulin nature. Any of them will share parts of Chinese market. Market strategy is very important. Who has a strong strategy adapt to Chinese economical and political situation will eat most of cake. Large company doesn't mean to win. This is like the Olympic games. Any player from the world could get one of the Gold Medals.

Second, Dongbao 's products have rapid-acting insulins and long-acting insulins. Maybe you don't have time to investigate Dongbao's products.

What I agree with you:

Dongbao is very small company comparing to Novo Nordisk. Someday soon Dongbao insulin will disappear from the world.

What you don't know:

Dongbao will produce very big chunk raw insulin in the world with lowest cost. Insulin market as a whole in the world is still demanding market now. Novo Nordisk has been keeping its eyes on the Dongbao and three companies in India. One of companies from India supplies the lowest price in the world but productivity is very small and quality is not good. There are two factors waiting for being cleared. One is if 3000 kg productivity is achievable; other is when the Chinese healthcare reform will practically take effect. The Dongbao insulin will soon be history whenever the two conditions are met.

想着你的笑

ceibbs is from ceibs ,right?

福尔莫斯

呵,ceibbs对东宝非常有信心啊.

但作为家里有人一直在消费诺合诺德产品的我，对于东宝的产品则报有些担忧。

第一，目前东宝的产品主流还是第二代的常规胰岛素，正处于市场推广阶段。而第三代的胰岛素类似物（速效和长效）则目前还处于中试阶段，是另一家公司甘李药业的，目前这家公司亏损严重。未来能否持续经营下去变数很大。第三代胰岛素目前国际上发展极快，诺合诺德公司在此方面优势极大。

第二，胰岛素由于是终生使用的产品，患者不可能中途换其它厂家的，就算价格便宜一点。诺合诺德自90年代进入中国以来，对医生、患者可以说做了先入为主的“洗脑”式教育。营销体系十分成熟，患者的忠诚度极高。东宝目前只能在二线城市中的二甲医院里的新增患者中寻求长期客户。

第三，也是我观察企业的一贯做法：当一家企业没有一个优良的经营历史展现其过人的经营特色时，最好不要给予其未来能创造奇迹的任何期待。东宝是靠外人的研发获得目前的胰导素产品的，本身无什么系统的研发力量。或者说其胰导素的研发更多靠的是海归某个人而不是公司自成体系的团队和积累。在胰岛素这样一个高技术含量和进展速度很快的领域，单纯以价格的方式来与如诺合诺德这样的公司竞争，个人觉得长期看没有什么太大的希望。

以同质化产品来与强大的竞争对手竞争，我自己对这样的公司更想给予更长时间来观察。

petter9988

是做波股票,还是投资个企业,虽然目的都是赚钱,都是博取资本利得,但是期间还是有差异的.

巴非特靠长期持有"永恒价值"的优质企业赚大钱,罗杰斯靠一个大波段里买卖"景气循环"的普通企业,同样是赚大钱.条条大道通罗马.但是千万搞清楚手中的东西是什么,是好项目、好股票还是好企业。

东宝或是是一个好股票，但似乎没有充足的理由说他是好企业。或许自己的能力圈太窄，ceibbs
兄（妹？）请继续。

ceibbs

This is for Peter.

I never think Dongbao company is a very good company. I only discuss about insulin here, which by chance that Dongbao is involved.

As for investment in stocks, my two days fish trips can explain it. My friend, Jacob and I went for fish yesterday. Everyone caught fish except me and Jacob, then we explored tools and tackles and found out that we had wrong tools and methods. Today we armed with new technology and went for fish again. You know what, Nobody caught fish today due to weather. Jacob laughed and said, " we were not ready yesterday and we are ready but fish not ready today".

Good luck with your investment, Peter.

［此帖子已被 ceibbs 在 2007-4-13 7:59:13 编辑过］

ceibbs

This is for 想着你的笑.

I don't know who ceibs is. We are here for learning from each other. What matters is what we are discussing, who cares who is from where. Is that right?

ceibbs

［此帖子已被 ceibbs 在 2007-4-13 10:01:18 编辑过］

ceibbs

This is for 福尔莫斯.

Drugs are special comercial products, I deeply agree with you about 诺合诺德自90年代进入中国以来，对医生、患者可以说做了先入为主的“洗脑”式教育。

However, we all know that the nature disaster can cause shuffling between rich and poor. Political and economical changes are disasters like earth quake and tsunami to the companies. The Chinese healthcare reform is tsunami to some pharmaceutical companies.

Novo Nordisk has stong R&D ability and concertrate on Haemostasis management and Hormone replacement therapy. Dongbao is not comparable to Novo Nordisk. To Novo Nordisk, Dongbao is a naughty boy, So Novo Nordisk would play two cards--Dongbao and one company from India. In this game, Novo Nordisk would use one card against other card when they grow.

Sorry for knowing that one of your family member is diabetes. Honestly, Dongbao's quality is good enough for diabetes treatment and Dongbao's third generation insulin will soon be on the shelf in China.

I am very busy everyday. I will try to post insulin history, research, current pharmaceutical companies productivity and the whole world market demand soon.

Once again, I am discussing insulin here. All my view is not a reference to buy or sell 600867.

［此帖子已被 ceibbs 在 2007-4-13 11:31:18 编辑过］

［此帖子已被 ceibbs 在 2007-4-13 21:39:48 编辑过］

火焰驹

楼主，您这是在中国的论坛啊！ 您在这儿发贴，是故意不让我们这些 不懂鸟语的人看啊 ［此帖子已被 火焰驹 在 2007-4-13 10:33:38 编辑过］

ceibbs

Sorry, 火焰驹. My computer only allow me inputing English. I cann't change its nature and I can not afford buying a new computer now. Would you please ignore my topic if you have trouble to read it?

火焰驹

哦，对不起啊，ceibbs兄，我有点失礼啦。你不在国内？